Ongoing localized outbreaks such as the multi-country mpox event and Bundibugyo Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have not produced sustained global human-to-human transmission or overwhelmed health systems, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability of no new pandemic in 2026. WHO rapid risk assessments rate mpox as moderate, with monthly case counts in the low thousands and limited geographic spread, while Ebola remains focused in Central Africa under active surveillance. Strengthened international frameworks, including the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement and upcoming UN high-level commitments on surveillance and countermeasures, further reduce escalation likelihood. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid viral adaptation enabling efficient airborne spread of avian influenza or an undetected novel pathogen, though current epidemiological indicators show no such trajectory.