Ongoing NASA and ESA surveys of near-Earth objects show no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision courses capable of releasing 10 kilotons or more of energy in 2026, supporting the 91% market-implied probability for No. Comprehensive tracking through systems like CNEOS and recent detections of only small fireballs, such as the sub-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly, reinforce trader confidence in established monitoring. Historical frequency of such events remains low, with the last comparable airburst occurring over a decade ago. Realistic challenges include an undetected object evading current surveys until late in the year or an unexpected orbital perturbation, though both remain low-probability given ongoing observations and the absence of Torino Scale threats.