Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$12,594 交易量
$12,594 交易量
2026-11-02
吉姆·贝尔德（共和党）
94%
德鲁·考克斯（民主党）
6%
$12,594 交易量
$12,594 交易量
2026-11-02
吉姆·贝尔德（共和党）
$9,278 交易量
94%
德鲁·考克斯（民主党）
$3,316 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$12,594结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,594结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary with 60.5% of the vote in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, outpacing challengers in a contest that drew limited national attention. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 to R+30 partisan voting index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points, underpins trader consensus favoring Baird at 93.5%. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from a fragmented May primary but trails substantially in fundraising, with Baird holding a wide cash advantage. All major forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Factors that could narrow the gap include unusually low Republican turnout, a late national political shift, or unexpected strength from independent candidate David Bokash, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such outcomes improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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