**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (96.5% implied probability), reflecting verified results from the completed primary cycle.** Four sitting Republicans—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—failed to secure renomination. These outcomes stemmed from targeted Trump-backed challenges against critics, redistricting effects in Texas, personal controversies and ethics issues, and localized anti-incumbent sentiment, without producing a broader wave. Historical postwar averages hover near 6-7 losses per cycle, and this year's GOP total aligned closely with expectations once early high-profile defeats occurred. A shift to 7-9 would require multiple additional defeats in any remaining contests or reclassifications, but late-cycle results and the absence of further major upsets have kept probabilities concentrated in the 4-6 bracket. Primary outcomes remain subject to final certification in a small number of districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$96,794 交易量
$96,794 交易量
4-6
97%
7-9
3%
$96,794 交易量
$96,794 交易量
4-6
$29,524 交易量
97%
7-9
$6,643 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (96.5% implied probability), reflecting verified results from the completed primary cycle.**
Four sitting Republicans—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—failed to secure renomination. These outcomes stemmed from targeted Trump-backed challenges against critics, redistricting effects in Texas, personal controversies and ethics issues, and localized anti-incumbent sentiment, without producing a broader wave. Historical postwar averages hover near 6-7 losses per cycle, and this year's GOP total aligned closely with expectations once early high-profile defeats occurred.
A shift to 7-9 would require multiple additional defeats in any remaining contests or reclassifications, but late-cycle results and the absence of further major upsets have kept probabilities concentrated in the 4-6 bracket. Primary outcomes remain subject to final certification in a small number of districts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$96,794市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (96.5% implied probability), reflecting verified results from the completed primary cycle.**
Four sitting Republicans—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—failed to secure renomination. These outcomes stemmed from targeted Trump-backed challenges against critics, redistricting effects in Texas, personal controversies and ethics issues, and localized anti-incumbent sentiment, without producing a broader wave. Historical postwar averages hover near 6-7 losses per cycle, and this year's GOP total aligned closely with expectations once early high-profile defeats occurred.
A shift to 7-9 would require multiple additional defeats in any remaining contests or reclassifications, but late-cycle results and the absence of further major upsets have kept probabilities concentrated in the 4-6 bracket. Primary outcomes remain subject to final certification in a small number of districts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$96,794市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET**Trader consensus heavily favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their 2026 primaries (96.5% implied probability), reflecting verified results from the completed primary cycle.** Four sitting Republicans—Dan Crenshaw in Texas, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Cory Mills in Florida—failed to secure renomination. These outcomes stemmed from targeted Trump-backed challenges against critics, redistricting effects in Texas, personal controversies and ethics issues, and localized anti-incumbent sentiment, without producing a broader wave. Historical postwar averages hover near 6-7 losses per cycle, and this year's GOP total aligned closely with expectations once early high-profile defeats occurred. A shift to 7-9 would require multiple additional defeats in any remaining contests or reclassifications, but late-cycle results and the absence of further major upsets have kept probabilities concentrated in the 4-6 bracket. Primary outcomes remain subject to final certification in a small number of districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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