Recent mid-decade redistricting approved by Florida's Republican legislature and upheld by the state Supreme Court has redrawn boundaries to favor GOP candidates, shifting several previously Democratic-leaning districts and targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto. This structural change from the prior 20-8 partisan split drives the spread in trader probabilities across 4 to 12+ Democratic seats. Primaries concluded in August with limited upsets, leaving general-election matchups on November 3 focused on suburban Tampa Bay and South Florida areas where national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, and any late polling shifts could determine final outcomes. The tight distribution among leading resolutions reflects uncertainty over how fully the map's projected Republican gains will materialize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6 19%
12+ 16%
11 15%
7 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于4个
1%
4
14%
5
13%
6
19%
7
15%
8
8%
9
5%
10
6%
11
15%
12+
16%
6 19%
12+ 16%
11 15%
7 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
少于4个
$195 交易量
1%
4
$1,377 交易量
14%
5
$657 交易量
13%
6
$486 交易量
19%
7
$497 交易量
15%
8
$617 交易量
8%
9
$391 交易量
5%
10
$600 交易量
6%
11
$760 交易量
15%
12+
$481 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting approved by Florida's Republican legislature and upheld by the state Supreme Court has redrawn boundaries to favor GOP candidates, shifting several previously Democratic-leaning districts and targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto. This structural change from the prior 20-8 partisan split drives the spread in trader probabilities across 4 to 12+ Democratic seats. Primaries concluded in August with limited upsets, leaving general-election matchups on November 3 focused on suburban Tampa Bay and South Florida areas where national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, and any late polling shifts could determine final outcomes. The tight distribution among leading resolutions reflects uncertainty over how fully the map's projected Republican gains will materialize.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
交易量
$6,061结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting approved by Florida's Republican legislature and upheld by the state Supreme Court has redrawn boundaries to favor GOP candidates, shifting several previously Democratic-leaning districts and targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto. This structural change from the prior 20-8 partisan split drives the spread in trader probabilities across 4 to 12+ Democratic seats. Primaries concluded in August with limited upsets, leaving general-election matchups on November 3 focused on suburban Tampa Bay and South Florida areas where national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, and any late polling shifts could determine final outcomes. The tight distribution among leading resolutions reflects uncertainty over how fully the map's projected Republican gains will materialize.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,061结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETRecent mid-decade redistricting approved by Florida's Republican legislature and upheld by the state Supreme Court has redrawn boundaries to favor GOP candidates, shifting several previously Democratic-leaning districts and targeting incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto. This structural change from the prior 20-8 partisan split drives the spread in trader probabilities across 4 to 12+ Democratic seats. Primaries concluded in August with limited upsets, leaving general-election matchups on November 3 focused on suburban Tampa Bay and South Florida areas where national conditions, turnout among key voting blocs, and any late polling shifts could determine final outcomes. The tight distribution among leading resolutions reflects uncertainty over how fully the map's projected Republican gains will materialize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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