Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including at the Jackson Hole symposium, have driven 5-year Treasury yields higher to 4.61% as of September 9, 2026, reflecting elevated inflation expectations and reduced odds of near-term rate cuts. Sticky core PCE readings above 3% and a stabilizing labor market have reinforced trader views that monetary policy will remain restrictive, with market-implied odds now incorporating potential hikes. Fiscal deficits, Treasury supply dynamics, and a rising term premium further anchor medium-term yields above recent lows near 4.35% from late August. Key upcoming releases, including September PPI and CPI data plus the next FOMC meeting, will likely determine whether yields can test lower levels or remain elevated amid these pressures.