**Rebel forces, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) allied with JNIM since 2025, have conducted coordinated offensives targeting Gao and surrounding areas in northern Mali throughout 2026, including major attacks in late April and ambushes on military convoys near the city in July.** These operations inflicted significant losses on Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel, with fighters claiming temporary pressure on positions around Gao and nearby towns like Anefis. However, the Malian junta has maintained control of Gao itself—a key northern operational hub—through counterattacks, air strikes, and reinforcements, as confirmed in official statements following each wave of fighting. Recent September 2026 JNIM assaults have focused more on central regions like Mopti and Dioura, where insurgents overran a major camp, but reports show no sustained rebel seizure of Gao. The 83.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that Malian defenses, despite strains from multi-front insurgencies and territorial concessions elsewhere (such as Kidal), remain sufficient to prevent a full capture by year-end amid ongoing operations and external support.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
17% 機率
$13,036 交易量
$13,036 交易量
2026-12-31
是
17% 機率
$13,036 交易量
$13,036 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) allied with JNIM since 2025, have conducted coordinated offensives targeting Gao and surrounding areas in northern Mali throughout 2026, including major attacks in late April and ambushes on military convoys near the city in July.** These operations inflicted significant losses on Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel, with fighters claiming temporary pressure on positions around Gao and nearby towns like Anefis. However, the Malian junta has maintained control of Gao itself—a key northern operational hub—through counterattacks, air strikes, and reinforcements, as confirmed in official statements following each wave of fighting. Recent September 2026 JNIM assaults have focused more on central regions like Mopti and Dioura, where insurgents overran a major camp, but reports show no sustained rebel seizure of Gao. The 83.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that Malian defenses, despite strains from multi-front insurgencies and territorial concessions elsewhere (such as Kidal), remain sufficient to prevent a full capture by year-end amid ongoing operations and external support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
市場開放時間： Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$13,036結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) allied with JNIM since 2025, have conducted coordinated offensives targeting Gao and surrounding areas in northern Mali throughout 2026, including major attacks in late April and ambushes on military convoys near the city in July.** These operations inflicted significant losses on Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel, with fighters claiming temporary pressure on positions around Gao and nearby towns like Anefis. However, the Malian junta has maintained control of Gao itself—a key northern operational hub—through counterattacks, air strikes, and reinforcements, as confirmed in official statements following each wave of fighting. Recent September 2026 JNIM assaults have focused more on central regions like Mopti and Dioura, where insurgents overran a major camp, but reports show no sustained rebel seizure of Gao. The 83.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that Malian defenses, despite strains from multi-front insurgencies and territorial concessions elsewhere (such as Kidal), remain sufficient to prevent a full capture by year-end amid ongoing operations and external support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
交易量
$13,036結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET**Rebel forces, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) allied with JNIM since 2025, have conducted coordinated offensives targeting Gao and surrounding areas in northern Mali throughout 2026, including major attacks in late April and ambushes on military convoys near the city in July.** These operations inflicted significant losses on Malian armed forces and Russian Africa Corps personnel, with fighters claiming temporary pressure on positions around Gao and nearby towns like Anefis. However, the Malian junta has maintained control of Gao itself—a key northern operational hub—through counterattacks, air strikes, and reinforcements, as confirmed in official statements following each wave of fighting. Recent September 2026 JNIM assaults have focused more on central regions like Mopti and Dioura, where insurgents overran a major camp, but reports show no sustained rebel seizure of Gao. The 83.5% “No” probability reflects trader assessment that Malian defenses, despite strains from multi-front insurgencies and territorial concessions elsewhere (such as Kidal), remain sufficient to prevent a full capture by year-end amid ongoing operations and external support.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions