Avengers: Doomsday's dominant 97.3% implied probability stems from record-setting advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release, alongside industry tracking that positions it for a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU's ensemble appeal, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and the Russo brothers' return fuel broad audience anticipation, far outpacing Dune: Part Three's franchise-high pre-sales that point to a potential $100–110 million debut. Historical Avengers openers consistently eclipse even strong competitors like Dune: Part Two's $82.5 million start. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include sharply negative early reviews for Doomsday or an unprecedented Dune surge from premium-format exclusivity and critical momentum, though current data and precedent make such reversals highly improbable before the shared holiday frame.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
沙丘3
3% 機率
$53,758 交易量
$53,758 交易量
2026-12-19
沙丘3
3% 機率
$53,758 交易量
$53,758 交易量
2026-12-19
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday's dominant 97.3% implied probability stems from record-setting advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release, alongside industry tracking that positions it for a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU's ensemble appeal, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and the Russo brothers' return fuel broad audience anticipation, far outpacing Dune: Part Three's franchise-high pre-sales that point to a potential $100–110 million debut. Historical Avengers openers consistently eclipse even strong competitors like Dune: Part Two's $82.5 million start. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include sharply negative early reviews for Doomsday or an unprecedented Dune surge from premium-format exclusivity and critical momentum, though current data and precedent make such reversals highly improbable before the shared holiday frame.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$53,758結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday's dominant 97.3% implied probability stems from record-setting advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release, alongside industry tracking that positions it for a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU's ensemble appeal, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and the Russo brothers' return fuel broad audience anticipation, far outpacing Dune: Part Three's franchise-high pre-sales that point to a potential $100–110 million debut. Historical Avengers openers consistently eclipse even strong competitors like Dune: Part Two's $82.5 million start. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include sharply negative early reviews for Doomsday or an unprecedented Dune surge from premium-format exclusivity and critical momentum, though current data and precedent make such reversals highly improbable before the shared holiday frame.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
交易量
$53,758結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday's dominant 97.3% implied probability stems from record-setting advance ticket sales exceeding $35 million months ahead of its December 18 release, alongside industry tracking that positions it for a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU's ensemble appeal, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and the Russo brothers' return fuel broad audience anticipation, far outpacing Dune: Part Three's franchise-high pre-sales that point to a potential $100–110 million debut. Historical Avengers openers consistently eclipse even strong competitors like Dune: Part Two's $82.5 million start. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include sharply negative early reviews for Doomsday or an unprecedented Dune surge from premium-format exclusivity and critical momentum, though current data and precedent make such reversals highly improbable before the shared holiday frame.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions