**Trader consensus on “No” at 90.8% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects the short remaining timeline and persistent structural barriers to additional normalization agreements.** As of mid-September 2026, the most recent signatory remains Kazakhstan (November 2025). Speculative comments from Israel’s ambassador to the UAE in mid-September suggested Kuwait could join within four to six months, but Kuwaiti parliamentary opposition and the absence of confirmed talks make this uncertain. Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile prospect, continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a longstanding requirement unchanged by recent U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to normalization. Ongoing regional dynamics, including Houthi threats and post-2023 conflict fallout, have not produced the diplomatic breakthroughs needed for new accessions in the next three months. Upgrades to existing ties (such as Israel-Morocco embassy exchanges) and broader calls for expansion by U.S. officials have not translated into fresh signatories. With only limited time left before the 2027 cutoff and no verified negotiations nearing completion, market pricing aligns with the low near-term probability of a new country formalizing relations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$307,215 交易量
$307,215 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
$307,215 交易量
$307,215 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on “No” at 90.8% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects the short remaining timeline and persistent structural barriers to additional normalization agreements.**
As of mid-September 2026, the most recent signatory remains Kazakhstan (November 2025). Speculative comments from Israel’s ambassador to the UAE in mid-September suggested Kuwait could join within four to six months, but Kuwaiti parliamentary opposition and the absence of confirmed talks make this uncertain. Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile prospect, continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a longstanding requirement unchanged by recent U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to normalization.
Ongoing regional dynamics, including Houthi threats and post-2023 conflict fallout, have not produced the diplomatic breakthroughs needed for new accessions in the next three months. Upgrades to existing ties (such as Israel-Morocco embassy exchanges) and broader calls for expansion by U.S. officials have not translated into fresh signatories. With only limited time left before the 2027 cutoff and no verified negotiations nearing completion, market pricing aligns with the low near-term probability of a new country formalizing relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$307,215結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on “No” at 90.8% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects the short remaining timeline and persistent structural barriers to additional normalization agreements.**
As of mid-September 2026, the most recent signatory remains Kazakhstan (November 2025). Speculative comments from Israel’s ambassador to the UAE in mid-September suggested Kuwait could join within four to six months, but Kuwaiti parliamentary opposition and the absence of confirmed talks make this uncertain. Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile prospect, continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a longstanding requirement unchanged by recent U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to normalization.
Ongoing regional dynamics, including Houthi threats and post-2023 conflict fallout, have not produced the diplomatic breakthroughs needed for new accessions in the next three months. Upgrades to existing ties (such as Israel-Morocco embassy exchanges) and broader calls for expansion by U.S. officials have not translated into fresh signatories. With only limited time left before the 2027 cutoff and no verified negotiations nearing completion, market pricing aligns with the low near-term probability of a new country formalizing relations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$307,215結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET**Trader consensus on “No” at 90.8% for a new country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects the short remaining timeline and persistent structural barriers to additional normalization agreements.** As of mid-September 2026, the most recent signatory remains Kazakhstan (November 2025). Speculative comments from Israel’s ambassador to the UAE in mid-September suggested Kuwait could join within four to six months, but Kuwaiti parliamentary opposition and the absence of confirmed talks make this uncertain. Saudi Arabia, the highest-profile prospect, continues to condition any move on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a longstanding requirement unchanged by recent U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to normalization. Ongoing regional dynamics, including Houthi threats and post-2023 conflict fallout, have not produced the diplomatic breakthroughs needed for new accessions in the next three months. Upgrades to existing ties (such as Israel-Morocco embassy exchanges) and broader calls for expansion by U.S. officials have not translated into fresh signatories. With only limited time left before the 2027 cutoff and no verified negotiations nearing completion, market pricing aligns with the low near-term probability of a new country formalizing relations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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