The 93% market-implied probability for no new NRC license in 2026 reflects the extended timelines inherent to the agency's review process for construction permits and combined operating licenses, even amid ongoing regulatory reforms under Executive Order 14300. Most active applications, including Holtec's Palisades SMR-300 units and X-energy's Long Mott project, remain in phased early-site or safety-evaluation stages with final decisions targeted for late 2026 or 2027. Recent milestones such as TerraPower's March 2026 Kemmerer permit and limited excavation exemptions demonstrate incremental progress but underscore that full commercial licensing for advanced reactors or large light-water designs typically spans 18–30 months post-docketing. DOE pilot programs have enabled some experimental criticality events outside NRC jurisdiction, yet these do not count toward the market's resolution criteria. A late-year approval on an accelerated schedule remains possible if mandatory hearings conclude favorably and Part 53 frameworks streamline reviews, though historical patterns and current dockets make this unlikely before December 31.