OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 listing due to AI safety and alignment priorities represent the dominant catalyst anchoring current market-implied odds. Traders assign 65.8% probability to a post-IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, reflecting the company’s $40 billion annualized revenue run-rate, $852 billion March 2026 private valuation, and sustained investor demand for frontier AI assets despite projected losses. The 17.3% odds on no IPO by end-2027 incorporate Altman’s emphasis on private financing options, including potential rounds at $1.2–1.5 trillion, alongside regulatory and competitive headwinds. Upcoming catalysts include any conversion of the confidential filing to a public registration and further private capital raises that could reset the valuation baseline before a debut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.5兆以上 65.8%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 17.3%
1.25兆–1.5兆 11%
1 兆–1.25 兆 4.0%
$335,617 交易量
$335,617 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
1%
5,000–7,500 億
1%
7,500億–1兆
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
4%
1.25兆–1.5兆
11%
1.5兆以上
66%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
17%
1.5兆以上 65.8%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 17.3%
1.25兆–1.5兆 11%
1 兆–1.25 兆 4.0%
$335,617 交易量
$335,617 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
$28,835 交易量
1%
5,000–7,500 億
$26,117 交易量
1%
7,500億–1兆
$64,628 交易量
2%
1 兆–1.25 兆
$39,514 交易量
4%
1.25兆–1.5兆
$29,184 交易量
11%
1.5兆以上
$75,183 交易量
66%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
$72,157 交易量
17%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 listing due to AI safety and alignment priorities represent the dominant catalyst anchoring current market-implied odds. Traders assign 65.8% probability to a post-IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, reflecting the company’s $40 billion annualized revenue run-rate, $852 billion March 2026 private valuation, and sustained investor demand for frontier AI assets despite projected losses. The 17.3% odds on no IPO by end-2027 incorporate Altman’s emphasis on private financing options, including potential rounds at $1.2–1.5 trillion, alongside regulatory and competitive headwinds. Upcoming catalysts include any conversion of the confidential filing to a public registration and further private capital raises that could reset the valuation baseline before a debut.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$335,617結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETThis market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 listing due to AI safety and alignment priorities represent the dominant catalyst anchoring current market-implied odds. Traders assign 65.8% probability to a post-IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, reflecting the company’s $40 billion annualized revenue run-rate, $852 billion March 2026 private valuation, and sustained investor demand for frontier AI assets despite projected losses. The 17.3% odds on no IPO by end-2027 incorporate Altman’s emphasis on private financing options, including potential rounds at $1.2–1.5 trillion, alongside regulatory and competitive headwinds. Upcoming catalysts include any conversion of the confidential filing to a public registration and further private capital raises that could reset the valuation baseline before a debut.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$335,617結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETOpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 listing due to AI safety and alignment priorities represent the dominant catalyst anchoring current market-implied odds. Traders assign 65.8% probability to a post-IPO closing market cap above $1.5 trillion, reflecting the company’s $40 billion annualized revenue run-rate, $852 billion March 2026 private valuation, and sustained investor demand for frontier AI assets despite projected losses. The 17.3% odds on no IPO by end-2027 incorporate Altman’s emphasis on private financing options, including potential rounds at $1.2–1.5 trillion, alongside regulatory and competitive headwinds. Upcoming catalysts include any conversion of the confidential filing to a public registration and further private capital raises that could reset the valuation baseline before a debut.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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