**Trader consensus on "No" for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before December 31, 2026, reflects the very short remaining window of roughly four months and the low baseline rate of such events.** USGS monitoring and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast indicate recurrence intervals for M6.5–M7+ quakes on the San Andreas and nearby faults typically span decades to centuries, with the last comparable event being the 1994 Northridge quake. Current seismic catalogs show only minor activity—frequent M1–M3 tremors but no foreshock sequences, strain-rate anomalies, or elevated moment release that would signal heightened near-term probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected multi-fault rupture driven by undetected stress transfer or a rare spontaneous event, though official data show no precursors supporting this in the immediate term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年前洛杉磯發生6.5級以上地震？
2027年前洛杉磯發生6.5級以上地震？
3% 機率
$18,520 交易量
$18,520 交易量
2026-12-31
3% 機率
$18,520 交易量
$18,520 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus on "No" for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before December 31, 2026, reflects the very short remaining window of roughly four months and the low baseline rate of such events.** USGS monitoring and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast indicate recurrence intervals for M6.5–M7+ quakes on the San Andreas and nearby faults typically span decades to centuries, with the last comparable event being the 1994 Northridge quake. Current seismic catalogs show only minor activity—frequent M1–M3 tremors but no foreshock sequences, strain-rate anomalies, or elevated moment release that would signal heightened near-term probability.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected multi-fault rupture driven by undetected stress transfer or a rare spontaneous event, though official data show no precursors supporting this in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$18,520結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus on "No" for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before December 31, 2026, reflects the very short remaining window of roughly four months and the low baseline rate of such events.** USGS monitoring and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast indicate recurrence intervals for M6.5–M7+ quakes on the San Andreas and nearby faults typically span decades to centuries, with the last comparable event being the 1994 Northridge quake. Current seismic catalogs show only minor activity—frequent M1–M3 tremors but no foreshock sequences, strain-rate anomalies, or elevated moment release that would signal heightened near-term probability.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected multi-fault rupture driven by undetected stress transfer or a rare spontaneous event, though official data show no precursors supporting this in the immediate term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$18,520結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET**Trader consensus on "No" for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before December 31, 2026, reflects the very short remaining window of roughly four months and the low baseline rate of such events.** USGS monitoring and the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast indicate recurrence intervals for M6.5–M7+ quakes on the San Andreas and nearby faults typically span decades to centuries, with the last comparable event being the 1994 Northridge quake. Current seismic catalogs show only minor activity—frequent M1–M3 tremors but no foreshock sequences, strain-rate anomalies, or elevated moment release that would signal heightened near-term probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected multi-fault rupture driven by undetected stress transfer or a rare spontaneous event, though official data show no precursors supporting this in the immediate term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions