**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,126,958 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
14%
$2,126,958 交易量
12月31日
$85,732 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view.
These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,126,958結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view.
These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,126,958結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET**Factional tensions within Iran's leadership have shaped trader sentiment on coup attempt markets.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered a leadership transition, hardline factions have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a "soft coup." They cite the sidelining of radicals from key parliamentary roles, expanded influence of the Supreme National Security Council, and negotiations leading to a U.S. truce agreement while Mojtaba Khamenei remains largely absent from public view. These accusations intensified around Ali Khamenei's funeral in July 2026, with lawmakers like Mahmoud Nabavian publicly warning of an unfolding political coup. Earlier large-scale protests in late 2025 and early 2026, met with a lethal crackdown, and subsequent regime survival after external strikes further highlighted internal divisions. However, no coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize power has been credibly reported by independent sources, keeping implied probabilities low. Upcoming Assembly of Experts deliberations on succession and any shifts in IRGC positioning could influence future assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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