Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the California 13th congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus at 96 percent. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 added Stockton and shifted the district's baseline toward Democrats by roughly six points, building on Gray's narrow 2024 victory. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Gray advancing at 42 percent ahead of Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, citing the district's recent presidential margins and Gray's incumbency and fundraising edge. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in 2024 House and presidential voting. A major national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap before November 3, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$26,815 交易量
$26,815 交易量
2026-11-04
亞當·格雷（民主黨）
96%
凱文·林肯（共和黨）
3%
$26,815 交易量
$26,815 交易量
2026-11-04
亞當·格雷（民主黨）
$17,904 交易量
96%
凱文·林肯（共和黨）
$8,911 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the California 13th congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus at 96 percent. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 added Stockton and shifted the district's baseline toward Democrats by roughly six points, building on Gray's narrow 2024 victory. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Gray advancing at 42 percent ahead of Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, citing the district's recent presidential margins and Gray's incumbency and fundraising edge. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in 2024 House and presidential voting. A major national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap before November 3, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$26,815結束日期
2026-11-05市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the California 13th congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus at 96 percent. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 added Stockton and shifted the district's baseline toward Democrats by roughly six points, building on Gray's narrow 2024 victory. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Gray advancing at 42 percent ahead of Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, citing the district's recent presidential margins and Gray's incumbency and fundraising edge. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in 2024 House and presidential voting. A major national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap before November 3, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,815結束日期
2026-11-05市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding lead in the California 13th congressional district race, reflected in trader consensus at 96 percent. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 added Stockton and shifted the district's baseline toward Democrats by roughly six points, building on Gray's narrow 2024 victory. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed the matchup, with Gray advancing at 42 percent ahead of Republican Kevin Lincoln at 28 percent. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Democratic, citing the district's recent presidential margins and Gray's incumbency and fundraising edge. Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district that favored Democrats in 2024 House and presidential voting. A major national Republican surge or unexpected turnout shift could narrow the gap before November 3, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions