Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and record extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1°C in late August, combined with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend, have driven trader consensus toward a narrow 1.38–1.41°C global surface temperature anomaly for August 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows continued ocean heat content buildup and tropical tropospheric warming, consistent with historical El Niño responses that typically elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines. Final surface analyses from NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth could shift the precise value if data revisions alter land or ocean contributions, though current model consensus and early satellite indicators make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）
2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ） （更高）
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 交易量
$20,752 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.8%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,752 交易量
$20,752 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
$657 交易量
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 交易量
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 交易量
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 交易量
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,263 交易量
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and record extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1°C in late August, combined with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend, have driven trader consensus toward a narrow 1.38–1.41°C global surface temperature anomaly for August 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows continued ocean heat content buildup and tropical tropospheric warming, consistent with historical El Niño responses that typically elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines. Final surface analyses from NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth could shift the precise value if data revisions alter land or ocean contributions, though current model consensus and early satellite indicators make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$20,752結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and record extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1°C in late August, combined with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend, have driven trader consensus toward a narrow 1.38–1.41°C global surface temperature anomaly for August 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows continued ocean heat content buildup and tropical tropospheric warming, consistent with historical El Niño responses that typically elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines. Final surface analyses from NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth could shift the precise value if data revisions alter land or ocean contributions, though current model consensus and early satellite indicators make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$20,752結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETStrong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and record extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching 21.1°C in late August, combined with the underlying anthropogenic warming trend, have driven trader consensus toward a narrow 1.38–1.41°C global surface temperature anomaly for August 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus shows continued ocean heat content buildup and tropical tropospheric warming, consistent with historical El Niño responses that typically elevate monthly anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines. Final surface analyses from NASA GISS or Berkeley Earth could shift the precise value if data revisions alter land or ocean contributions, though current model consensus and early satellite indicators make substantial deviation unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions