Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5 °C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially record peak near +3.5 °C by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomalies. Recent observations show August 2026 tying or setting records near 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while early September data place the month on track for a new September record around +0.95 °C anomaly, though within model uncertainty ranges. Trader consensus across narrow bins from <1.30 °C to >1.49 °C reflects genuine scientific uncertainty from natural variability, model spread in ENSO evolution, and the lag between Pacific SSTs and global surface response. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates, plus full-month observational releases, will refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月溫度升高（ ºC ）
2026年9月溫度升高（ ºC ）
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
>1.49ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
低於1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
>1.49ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
低於1.30ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5 °C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially record peak near +3.5 °C by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomalies. Recent observations show August 2026 tying or setting records near 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while early September data place the month on track for a new September record around +0.95 °C anomaly, though within model uncertainty ranges. Trader consensus across narrow bins from <1.30 °C to >1.49 °C reflects genuine scientific uncertainty from natural variability, model spread in ENSO evolution, and the lag between Pacific SSTs and global surface response. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates, plus full-month observational releases, will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5 °C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially record peak near +3.5 °C by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomalies. Recent observations show August 2026 tying or setting records near 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while early September data place the month on track for a new September record around +0.95 °C anomaly, though within model uncertainty ranges. Trader consensus across narrow bins from <1.30 °C to >1.49 °C reflects genuine scientific uncertainty from natural variability, model spread in ENSO evolution, and the lag between Pacific SSTs and global surface response. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates, plus full-month observational releases, will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETStrong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5 °C and forecasts pointing toward a potentially record peak near +3.5 °C by late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomalies. Recent observations show August 2026 tying or setting records near 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, while early September data place the month on track for a new September record around +0.95 °C anomaly, though within model uncertainty ranges. Trader consensus across narrow bins from <1.30 °C to >1.49 °C reflects genuine scientific uncertainty from natural variability, model spread in ENSO evolution, and the lag between Pacific SSTs and global surface response. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates, plus full-month observational releases, will refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions