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icon for 在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？
政治·巴西

在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？

icon for 在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？
政治·巴西

在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$91,769 交易量

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$91,769 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$91,769
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$91,769
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "在2027年之前，有任何巴西最高聯邦法院大法官因彈劾被罷免嗎？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" has generated $91.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" is "在2027年之前，有任何巴西最高聯邦法院大法官因彈劾被罷免嗎？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.