Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems, including orbital tracking and impact energy modeling, has identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026. Decades of fireball data and refined surveys show such events occur far less frequently than once per century on average, with the last comparable incident (Chelyabinsk) releasing under 500 kilotons. Trader consensus at 98.6% for “No” reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible only through discovery of an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face major observational and technical barriers before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$117,333 交易量
$117,333 交易量
2027-02-28
是
2% 機率
$117,333 交易量
$117,333 交易量
2027-02-28
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems, including orbital tracking and impact energy modeling, has identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026. Decades of fireball data and refined surveys show such events occur far less frequently than once per century on average, with the last comparable incident (Chelyabinsk) releasing under 500 kilotons. Trader consensus at 98.6% for “No” reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible only through discovery of an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face major observational and technical barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$117,333結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems, including orbital tracking and impact energy modeling, has identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026. Decades of fireball data and refined surveys show such events occur far less frequently than once per century on average, with the last comparable incident (Chelyabinsk) releasing under 500 kilotons. Trader consensus at 98.6% for “No” reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible only through discovery of an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face major observational and technical barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$117,333結束日期
2027-03-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETExtensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems, including orbital tracking and impact energy modeling, has identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026. Decades of fireball data and refined surveys show such events occur far less frequently than once per century on average, with the last comparable incident (Chelyabinsk) releasing under 500 kilotons. Trader consensus at 98.6% for “No” reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic shifts remain possible only through discovery of an undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face major observational and technical barriers before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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