Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion the prior month and have since conducted sustained counteroffensives in the Dobropillya direction that have restricted Russian advances across Donetsk Oblast. As of mid-September 2026, Ukrainian reports document ongoing Russian ground attacks and glide-bomb strikes toward the settlement while ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control of the key intersection referenced in the market; Russian Ministry of Defense claims of territorial gains have consistently exceeded independent mapping by wide margins. Ukrainian operations, including Operation Vivaldi near Lyman, have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients that could support renewed pressure on the area, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for Russian capture by late August or October 2026. Scheduled developments include continued Russian preparations for mechanized assaults once seasonal conditions improve and Ukrainian efforts to maintain defensive lines around the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?
$148,368 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
12%
$148,368 KL.
October 31
$17,002 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion the prior month and have since conducted sustained counteroffensives in the Dobropillya direction that have restricted Russian advances across Donetsk Oblast. As of mid-September 2026, Ukrainian reports document ongoing Russian ground attacks and glide-bomb strikes toward the settlement while ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control of the key intersection referenced in the market; Russian Ministry of Defense claims of territorial gains have consistently exceeded independent mapping by wide margins. Ukrainian operations, including Operation Vivaldi near Lyman, have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients that could support renewed pressure on the area, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for Russian capture by late August or October 2026. Scheduled developments include continued Russian preparations for mechanized assaults once seasonal conditions improve and Ukrainian efforts to maintain defensive lines around the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$148,368Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion the prior month and have since conducted sustained counteroffensives in the Dobropillya direction that have restricted Russian advances across Donetsk Oblast. As of mid-September 2026, Ukrainian reports document ongoing Russian ground attacks and glide-bomb strikes toward the settlement while ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control of the key intersection referenced in the market; Russian Ministry of Defense claims of territorial gains have consistently exceeded independent mapping by wide margins. Ukrainian operations, including Operation Vivaldi near Lyman, have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients that could support renewed pressure on the area, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for Russian capture by late August or October 2026. Scheduled developments include continued Russian preparations for mechanized assaults once seasonal conditions improve and Ukrainian efforts to maintain defensive lines around the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png
Kucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$148,368Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 3:12 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces recaptured Kucheriv Yar in October 2025 after a brief Russian incursion the prior month and have since conducted sustained counteroffensives in the Dobropillya direction that have restricted Russian advances across Donetsk Oblast. As of mid-September 2026, Ukrainian reports document ongoing Russian ground attacks and glide-bomb strikes toward the settlement while ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control of the key intersection referenced in the market; Russian Ministry of Defense claims of territorial gains have consistently exceeded independent mapping by wide margins. Ukrainian operations, including Operation Vivaldi near Lyman, have disrupted Russian attempts to develop salients that could support renewed pressure on the area, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for Russian capture by late August or October 2026. Scheduled developments include continued Russian preparations for mechanized assaults once seasonal conditions improve and Ukrainian efforts to maintain defensive lines around the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya axis.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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