Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and attacks on Saudi targets have intensified pressure on the 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire, yet Washington has maintained direct contacts confirming the group’s pledge to spare US vessels and honor the truce. President Trump reversed course on planned airstrikes over the weekend despite Saudi appeals, reflecting administration priorities to avoid broader entanglement amid the Iran conflict and upcoming midterms. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces face mounting setbacks, while Oman-mediated talks and Houthi statements excluding the US from targeting reinforce the ceasefire’s continuation. Upcoming diplomatic or military moves by Riyadh or Tehran could still alter the dynamic before key resolution dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
$14,349 KL.
Sep 22, 2026
September 22
97%
September 25
95%
September 30
89%
October 9
85%
October 31
73%
$14,349 KL.
September 22
$3,702 KL.
97%
September 25
$4,377 KL.
95%
September 30
$2,545 KL.
89%
October 9
$1,871 KL.
85%
October 31
$1,854 KL.
73%
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and attacks on Saudi targets have intensified pressure on the 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire, yet Washington has maintained direct contacts confirming the group’s pledge to spare US vessels and honor the truce. President Trump reversed course on planned airstrikes over the weekend despite Saudi appeals, reflecting administration priorities to avoid broader entanglement amid the Iran conflict and upcoming midterms. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces face mounting setbacks, while Oman-mediated talks and Houthi statements excluding the US from targeting reinforce the ceasefire’s continuation. Upcoming diplomatic or military moves by Riyadh or Tehran could still alter the dynamic before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,349Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and attacks on Saudi targets have intensified pressure on the 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire, yet Washington has maintained direct contacts confirming the group’s pledge to spare US vessels and honor the truce. President Trump reversed course on planned airstrikes over the weekend despite Saudi appeals, reflecting administration priorities to avoid broader entanglement amid the Iran conflict and upcoming midterms. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces face mounting setbacks, while Oman-mediated talks and Houthi statements excluding the US from targeting reinforce the ceasefire’s continuation. Upcoming diplomatic or military moves by Riyadh or Tehran could still alter the dynamic before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$14,349Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and attacks on Saudi targets have intensified pressure on the 2025 US-Houthi ceasefire, yet Washington has maintained direct contacts confirming the group’s pledge to spare US vessels and honor the truce. President Trump reversed course on planned airstrikes over the weekend despite Saudi appeals, reflecting administration priorities to avoid broader entanglement amid the Iran conflict and upcoming midterms. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces face mounting setbacks, while Oman-mediated talks and Houthi statements excluding the US from targeting reinforce the ceasefire’s continuation. Upcoming diplomatic or military moves by Riyadh or Tehran could still alter the dynamic before key resolution dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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