Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term concludes in May 2027, with the first round of the next election set for April 2027, leaving limited political bandwidth for major initiatives in the final months of 2026. Legislative priorities such as the assisted-dying law advanced through parliament, while the revised under-15 social-media age restriction is being prepared for implementation via ordinary legislation in spring 2027 rather than direct popular consultation. Repeated earlier references to Article 11 referendums have not produced concrete timetables amid a fragmented National Assembly and the approach of municipal and presidential campaign seasons. Trader consensus at 96.6 percent on “No” reflects the absence of any announced decree or acute institutional deadlock that would require bypassing parliament before year-end. A sudden legislative impasse or strategic decision to test public support on institutional reform could still alter the trajectory.