France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces entrenched parliamentary fragmentation ahead of the 2027 presidential election, driving the 62% market-implied probability that no full national budget for 2027 will pass by December 31. The administration has outlined €54 billion in spending cuts and tax measures to narrow the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027 after it widened to a projected 5.4% this year, with public debt exceeding 120% of GDP. Left-wing parties including La France Insoumise have pledged to censure any such package, while the Rassemblement National’s stance remains uncertain amid campaign positioning. Parliament is scheduled to receive the bill in October, heightening risks that reliance on Article 49.3 or a special financing law could leave the measure unresolved by year-end.