Traders assign a 99.6% probability to “No” on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, primarily because only nine days remain and no verifiable indicators of imminent large-scale amphibious operations exist. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense assessments and recent military analyses indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient sealift, air-sea control, and sustainment capacity for a multi-axis landing. Ongoing activities—routine PLA aircraft and vessel transits, a September Chinese drone reconnaissance flight over Taiwanese drill areas, and joint Taiwanese precision-strike exercises with drones and missiles—reflect continued gray-zone pressure rather than invasion preparations. An upcoming U.S.-China leaders’ summit further aligns incentives against sudden escalation. While an unforeseen crisis or miscalculation could theoretically compress timelines, the logistical and intelligence requirements for a full invasion render any shift in the final week improbable.