Taiwan's 2026 Report on China’s Military Power assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, with experts identifying 2030–2035 as the more plausible window. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through daily aircraft and vessel activity plus recent drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese drills, yet these operations have not escalated to the scale or tempo required for imminent amphibious assault. Taipei has responded by accelerating defense modernization, including its first joint attack-drone exercises and live-fire tests of indigenous missiles and U.S. HIMARS systems ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. Diplomatic channels remain open on arms sales and cross-strait issues, supporting trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12% khả năng
$3,236,740 KL.
$3,236,740 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
12% khả năng
$3,236,740 KL.
$3,236,740 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's 2026 Report on China’s Military Power assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, with experts identifying 2030–2035 as the more plausible window. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through daily aircraft and vessel activity plus recent drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese drills, yet these operations have not escalated to the scale or tempo required for imminent amphibious assault. Taipei has responded by accelerating defense modernization, including its first joint attack-drone exercises and live-fire tests of indigenous missiles and U.S. HIMARS systems ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. Diplomatic channels remain open on arms sales and cross-strait issues, supporting trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,236,740Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's 2026 Report on China’s Military Power assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, with experts identifying 2030–2035 as the more plausible window. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through daily aircraft and vessel activity plus recent drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese drills, yet these operations have not escalated to the scale or tempo required for imminent amphibious assault. Taipei has responded by accelerating defense modernization, including its first joint attack-drone exercises and live-fire tests of indigenous missiles and U.S. HIMARS systems ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. Diplomatic channels remain open on arms sales and cross-strait issues, supporting trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,236,740Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's 2026 Report on China’s Military Power assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, logistics sustainment, and joint control needed for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, with experts identifying 2030–2035 as the more plausible window. Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through daily aircraft and vessel activity plus recent drone reconnaissance over Taiwanese drills, yet these operations have not escalated to the scale or tempo required for imminent amphibious assault. Taipei has responded by accelerating defense modernization, including its first joint attack-drone exercises and live-fire tests of indigenous missiles and U.S. HIMARS systems ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. Diplomatic channels remain open on arms sales and cross-strait issues, supporting trader consensus that the probability of invasion by the end of 2027 remains low.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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