**Strong market consensus around a sub-$8 million opening for “Whalefall” stems from its sharply lower-than-expected Friday performance and direct competition for its core audience.** The survival thriller from 20th Century Studios, starring Austin Abrams and Josh Brolin, tracked for $10–12 million earlier in the week but is now projected near $7 million after a soft $3 million opening day that included modest Thursday previews. Paramount’s “Street Fighter” is capturing much of the older male demographic the film needed, while A24’s limited-release documentary “You Can See Everything” is outpacing it on far fewer screens. Mixed reviews (71% on Rotten Tomatoes, 59 Metacritic) and a B CinemaScore have failed to generate meaningful word-of-mouth momentum. An upset into the $8–10 million range would require an unusually strong Saturday–Sunday hold that current daily figures make improbable.