**Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson’s star power, combined with the Colleen Hoover adaptation’s built-in fan base, anchors trader sentiment for “Verity’s” opening weekend, yet the market remains split across the $22–28 million range.** The $40 million R-rated psychological erotic thriller from director Michael Showalter opens October 2 against Tom Cruise’s comedy “Digger,” creating a direct head-to-head that has kept implied probabilities nearly even between the 22–25 million and 28 million-plus brackets. Recent tracking has fluctuated between the low-to-mid $20s and low $30s, reflecting both Hathaway’s strong 2026 momentum and the genre’s mixed historical results compared with prior PG-13 Hoover romances. Presales, early audience tracking, and final competition dynamics will likely decide whether the film lands in the middle or pushes higher.