Traders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
84% khả năng
$786,912 KL.
$786,912 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Có
84% khả năng
$786,912 KL.
$786,912 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$786,912Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$786,912Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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