Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no prison time for Maduro amid ongoing diplomatic negotiations and potential exile arrangements that could shield him from prosecution. Domestic political dynamics in Venezuela, including opposition pressures and institutional constraints, alongside international sanctions and legal proceedings, support scenarios of extended sentences exceeding 60 years as the next most favored outcome. The closely contested probabilities across ranges reflect uncertainty over whether political deals or accountability measures will prevail, with scheduled diplomatic summits and any resolution of outstanding charges likely to influence near-term shifts in these assessments.