Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and burying substantial stockpiles of 60 percent highly enriched uranium in tunnel complexes. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm no verified resumption of enrichment activities, with inspectors denied access to key sites since mid-2025 and no evidence of active weaponization efforts. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on stockpile disposition collapsed within weeks, leaving the program in a damaged, dormant state. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks and the compressed timeline to 2027, though undetected recovery of buried material, covert new construction, or rapid breakout at undeclared sites could still shift outcomes before year-end.