Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and a substantial stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium largely inaccessible under rubble at locations such as Isfahan. The IAEA has lacked verification access to major facilities since mid-2025, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at scale. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its longstanding policy against nuclear weapons while focusing reconstruction efforts on hardened underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain and limited repairs at Parchin-linked facilities. These constraints, combined with the high detectability of any explosive test and risks of further military response, underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden doctrinal shift, undetected progress in hidden weaponization work, or acute escalation could still alter timelines within the window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5% khả năng
$262,830 KL.
$262,830 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5% khả năng
$262,830 KL.
$262,830 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and a substantial stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium largely inaccessible under rubble at locations such as Isfahan. The IAEA has lacked verification access to major facilities since mid-2025, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at scale. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its longstanding policy against nuclear weapons while focusing reconstruction efforts on hardened underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain and limited repairs at Parchin-linked facilities. These constraints, combined with the high detectability of any explosive test and risks of further military response, underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden doctrinal shift, undetected progress in hidden weaponization work, or acute escalation could still alter timelines within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$262,830Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and a substantial stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium largely inaccessible under rubble at locations such as Isfahan. The IAEA has lacked verification access to major facilities since mid-2025, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at scale. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its longstanding policy against nuclear weapons while focusing reconstruction efforts on hardened underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain and limited repairs at Parchin-linked facilities. These constraints, combined with the high detectability of any explosive test and risks of further military response, underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden doctrinal shift, undetected progress in hidden weaponization work, or acute escalation could still alter timelines within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070be91...Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites inoperable and a substantial stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium largely inaccessible under rubble at locations such as Isfahan. The IAEA has lacked verification access to major facilities since mid-2025, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities at scale. Tehran has publicly reaffirmed its longstanding policy against nuclear weapons while focusing reconstruction efforts on hardened underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain and limited repairs at Parchin-linked facilities. These constraints, combined with the high detectability of any explosive test and risks of further military response, underpin trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden doctrinal shift, undetected progress in hidden weaponization work, or acute escalation could still alter timelines within the window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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