Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028

Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028 — Thảo luận

siick · 2025-07-11T18:41:17.827Z

Thảo luận về Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028. Trader chia sẻ phân tích và dự đoán trên Polymarket.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.8%

Jon Ossoff 15.8%

Gavin Newsom 14.4%

Kamala Harris 7.8%

$1,273,925,399 KL.

Nov 6, 2028

Kiếm 3.25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$15,109,201 KL.

19%

Jon Ossoff

$12,879,936 KL.

16%

Gavin Newsom

$27,150,826 KL.

14%

Kamala Harris

$13,174,167 KL.

Josh Shapiro

$9,879,313 KL.

Pete Buttigieg

$11,987,605 KL.

Mark Kelly

$17,488,082 KL.

Andy Beshear

$13,152,707 KL.

Rahm Emanuel

$14,544,591 KL.

James Talarico

$10,637,054 KL.

Ro Khanna

$11,264,475 KL.

Wes Moore

$18,418,645 KL.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$12,493,345 KL.

J.B. Pritzker

$15,597,036 KL.

Cory Booker

$26,234,327 KL.

Raphael Warnock

$32,179,950 KL.

Hunter Biden

$44,376,161 KL.

Gretchen Whitmer

$12,032,504 KL.

Chelsea Clinton

$50,429,455 KL.

<1%

Chris Murphy

$17,262,824 KL.

<1%

Jon Stewart

$24,662,072 KL.

<1%

Bernie Sanders

$52,735,569 KL.

<1%

Mark Cuban

$22,899,487 KL.

<1%

Jasmine Crockett

$36,462,284 KL.

<1%

Barack Obama

$34,031,595 KL.

<1%

Michelle Obama

$26,242,993 KL.

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$38,927,623 KL.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$1,180,017 KL.

<1%

MrBeast

$40,994,242 KL.

<1%

Stephen A. Smith

$22,403,270 KL.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$1,434,505 KL.

<1%

Josh Stein

$2,326,078 KL.

<1%

Gina Raimondo

$35,762,869 KL.

<1%

Andrew Yang

$48,729,562 KL.

<1%

Ruben Gallego

$8,426,594 KL.

<1%

Jared Polis

$27,343,895 KL.

<1%

Hillary Clinton

$43,817,347 KL.

<1%

Oprah Winfrey

$54,387,509 KL.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$439,624 KL.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$786,614 KL.

<1%

George Clooney

$43,355,701 KL.

<1%

Tim Walz

$43,350,662 KL.

<1%

Liz Cheney

$38,478,023 KL.

<1%

Beto O’Rourke

$42,810,480 KL.

<1%

John Fetterman

$25,593,882 KL.

<1%

Kim Kardashian

$42,861,244 KL.

<1%

Phil Murphy

$42,389,273 KL.

<1%

LeBron James

$43,965,683 KL.

<1%

Roy Cooper

$31,507,909 KL.

<1%

Graham Platner

$8,523,105 KL.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$803,509 KL.

<1%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.8%

Jon Ossoff 15.8%

Gavin Newsom 14.4%

Kamala Harris 7.8%

$1,273,925,399 KL.

Nov 6, 2028

Kiếm 3.25%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$15,109,201 KL.

19%

Jon Ossoff

$12,879,936 KL.

16%

Gavin Newsom

$27,150,826 KL.

14%

Kamala Harris

$13,174,167 KL.

Josh Shapiro

$9,879,313 KL.

Pete Buttigieg

$11,987,605 KL.

Mark Kelly

$17,488,082 KL.

Andy Beshear

$13,152,707 KL.

Rahm Emanuel

$14,544,591 KL.

James Talarico

$10,637,054 KL.

Ro Khanna

$11,264,475 KL.

Wes Moore

$18,418,645 KL.

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$12,493,345 KL.

J.B. Pritzker

$15,597,036 KL.

Cory Booker

$26,234,327 KL.

Raphael Warnock

$32,179,950 KL.

Hunter Biden

$44,376,161 KL.

Gretchen Whitmer

$12,032,504 KL.

Chelsea Clinton

$50,429,455 KL.

<1%

Chris Murphy

$17,262,824 KL.

<1%

Jon Stewart

$24,662,072 KL.

<1%

Bernie Sanders

$52,735,569 KL.

<1%

Mark Cuban

$22,899,487 KL.

<1%

Jasmine Crockett

$36,462,284 KL.

<1%

Barack Obama

$34,031,595 KL.

<1%

Michelle Obama

$26,242,993 KL.

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

$38,927,623 KL.

<1%

Elissa Slotkin

$1,180,017 KL.

<1%

MrBeast

$40,994,242 KL.

<1%

Stephen A. Smith

$22,403,270 KL.

<1%

Abigail Spanberger

$1,434,505 KL.

<1%

Josh Stein

$2,326,078 KL.

<1%

Gina Raimondo

$35,762,869 KL.

<1%

Andrew Yang

$48,729,562 KL.

<1%

Ruben Gallego

$8,426,594 KL.

<1%

Jared Polis

$27,343,895 KL.

<1%

Hillary Clinton

$43,817,347 KL.

<1%

Oprah Winfrey

$54,387,509 KL.

<1%

Adam Schiff

$439,624 KL.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$786,614 KL.

<1%

George Clooney

$43,355,701 KL.

<1%

Tim Walz

$43,350,662 KL.

<1%

Liz Cheney

$38,478,023 KL.

<1%

Beto O’Rourke

$42,810,480 KL.

<1%

John Fetterman

$25,593,882 KL.

<1%

Kim Kardashian

$42,861,244 KL.

<1%

Phil Murphy

$42,389,273 KL.

<1%

LeBron James

$43,965,683 KL.

<1%

Roy Cooper

$31,507,909 KL.

<1%

Graham Platner

$8,523,105 KL.

<1%

Hakeem Jeffries

$803,509 KL.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Thị trường mở: Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Khối lượng

$1,273,925,399

Ngày kết thúc

Nov 7, 2028

Thị trường mở

Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x2F5e3684c...

The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination market reflects an unusually fragmented field more than two years before primaries, with no candidate exceeding 19% implied probability amid trader assessments of post-2024 party dynamics. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, and Gavin Newsom lead as visible national figures drawing support from distinct voter coalitions, while Kamala Harris and others trail due to varying levels of recent primary performance and positioning. Early indicators such as Senate and gubernatorial visibility, fundraising starts, and potential 2026 midterm outcomes continue to shape sentiment, leaving room for shifts from endorsements, polling trends in key states, or candidate announcements before the first contests.

Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật 00:00 UTC 10 thg 9, 2026

Sep 7 2026

Gavin Newsom campaigns in South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%1%

Newsom's visit to South Carolina, the first primary state for Democrats in 2028, was seen as exploratory for a presidential run, but his market odds continued to decline amid growing competition, ending near 14%.

Sep 4 2026

Jon Ossoff launches new Senate ad campaign amid re-election battle

Jon Ossoff rises to 16%1%

Ossoff released new ads targeting his Republican opponent, highlighting policy differences and increasing campaign visibility during a competitive 2026 Senate race.

Aug 17 2026

Jon Ossoff reiterates he is not running for president in 2028

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%8%

Despite rising speculation and increasing market odds, Jon Ossoff publicly and repeatedly stated in June and August 2026 that he is not running for president in 2028, focusing instead on his 2026 Senate reelection campaign. This statement caused some market volatility but did not fully reverse his rising odds.

Aug 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly states she is 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%

During a speech at the National Action Network convention, Kamala Harris publicly stated she is considering a 2028 presidential run, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price, which fluctuated around 7-10%.

Aug 1 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins Democratic Socialists of America ahead of 2028 run speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 20%6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez renewed her membership in the Democratic Socialists of America in August 2026, signaling her continued alignment with progressive politics and fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run, coinciding with a market price increase from 14% to 20%.

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Harris publicly endorsed progressive policies such as expanding the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College, signaling a shift to a more left-leaning platform as she weighs a 2028 presidential campaign. Despite this, her market odds remained relatively flat.

Jul 24 2026

Democratic National Committee votes to keep South Carolina first in 2028 primary calendar

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to recommend South Carolina remain the first state on the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, favoring more racially diverse states. This decision influenced candidate strategies and market perceptions, benefiting candidates with strong support in South Carolina like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 23 2026

Jon Ossoff rises to second place in Democratic nomination polls despite denying 2028 run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%6%

Polls released in late July showed Jon Ossoff climbing to second place in the Democratic primary field with 13-16% support, coinciding with his market price rising from 10% to 16%. Despite his denials of running, his growing popularity fueled market optimism about his chances.

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff rising among 2028 Democratic contenders

Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%8%

An Emerson College poll in late July 2026 showed Jon Ossoff gaining support, tying with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and trailing Gavin Newsom, which contributed to a rise in his market odds from 6% to 14-16%. This polling data signaled growing viability for Ossoff despite his public denials of a presidential run.

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

On July 15, 2026, Ossoff's pointed questioning of Jay Clayton, Trump's nominee for national intelligence director, and his vocal opposition to Trump administration policies raised his national profile and contributed to a significant rise in his market odds.

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Ossoff questioned Trump's nominee for national intelligence director about the 2020 election results, highlighting Trump's refusal to concede and labeling his administration corrupt. This high-profile confrontation boosted Ossoff's visibility as a leading anti-Trump Democrat and increased his 2028 nomination odds.

Jul 10 2026

Gavin Newsom launches midterm campaign tour focusing on southern states

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%

Newsom began a campaign tour in July 2026 targeting key southern states with significant Black voter populations, aiming to build support for Democrats ahead of the midterms and position himself for a potential 2028 presidential run. This strategic outreach was seen as bolstering his frontrunner status, though his market price began to decline afterward.

Jul 7 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 16%5%

A New Hampshire poll showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leading the early 2028 Democratic presidential primary state, causing her market price to jump from 11% to 16%. This surge highlighted her growing appeal among progressive voters and increased speculation about her candidacy.

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Senator Jon Ossoff's campaign rallies in Georgia went viral, showcasing his sharp criticism of Donald Trump and resonating with Democratic voters. Despite his repeated denials of interest in running for president, his rising profile and fundraising success increased his market odds from 6% to 10%.

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Axios reported that Gavin Newsom has been cultivating closer ties with Joe Biden and his political circle, emphasizing Biden's legislative record to secure Democratic goodwill. This strategic positioning reinforced Newsom's frontrunner status, maintaining his market lead despite a slight price dip.

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

A Washington Post report revealed that the DOJ had opened a federal investigation into Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife. The news sparked speculation that the probe could either damage his presidential prospects or rally Democratic voters, prompting a modest but noticeable decline in Newsom’s market price from the mid‑20s to the low‑20 % range by the end of June.

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

The Washington Post reported that Newsom’s office confirmed a federal investigation into his administration on June 17. The announcement sparked speculation that legal trouble could derail a 2028 presidential bid, prompting the market’s price for Newsom to fall from a high of 27 % on June 15 to 20 % by July 1.

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife were under federal investigation, which introduced uncertainty about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats rallied around him viewing the probe as politically motivated, the market price for his nomination odds declined from 25% to around 20%.

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Mike Collins won the Republican runoff, becoming Jon Ossoff's opponent in the 2026 Senate election. This improved Ossoff's reelection outlook and boosted his 2028 presidential nomination odds, as a strong Senate position is seen as a stepping stone for presidential ambitions.

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly disclosed a federal investigation into himself and his wife, which raised concerns about his presidential prospects. While some Democrats might rally around him if the probe is seen as politically motivated, the announcement caused a decline in his market odds.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly revealed that he and his wife are under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he claims is politically motivated by President Donald Trump due to his potential 2028 presidential run. This announcement led to a decline in Newsom's market price from the mid-20s to the low 20% range, reflecting uncertainty about his candidacy.

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a video claiming that he and his wife are under federal investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argued was a politically motivated attack targeting him as a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

An influential New York Times opinion article titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President" was published, boosting Ossoff's profile and market odds from 7% to 9% by June 13. The piece emphasized Ossoff's appeal and potential despite his denials of presidential ambitions, increasing market enthusiasm.

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Ossoff exerted influence behind the scenes to oust Nikema Williams as Georgia Democratic Party Chair, citing concerns about her dual roles and leadership effectiveness. This internal party conflict highlighted Ossoff's strategic positioning ahead of his reelection campaign, impacting market sentiment.

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Following his vote supporting resolutions to restrict arms sales to Israel, Ossoff faced backlash from Jewish leaders and community members in Georgia, including criticism from the Israeli consul general and his childhood synagogue's rabbi. This controversy likely influenced market perceptions, contributing to Ossoff's price increase.

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Mike Collins secured the Republican nomination for the 2026 Georgia Senate race, endorsed by Donald Trump, setting up a competitive race against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. This heightened Ossoff's profile and market interest in his potential 2028 presidential run, contributing to his price rise from 5% to 7%.

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

A new Emerson College poll released on May 28, 2026, identified Pete Buttigieg as the top potential contender in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, with 18% support among likely Democratic primary voters. This poll influenced market perceptions but did not significantly affect Jon Ossoff's price.

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

On May 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff publicly aligned with Keisha Lance Bottoms, a figure criticized for soft-on-crime policies, which drew Republican attacks and highlighted Ossoff's political positioning in Georgia. This association likely contributed to Ossoff's price movements as it affected perceptions of his electability.

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

At the National Action Network convention Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton she was “thinking about” a 2028 run. The remark, covered by CNN, increased speculation about her candidacy and corresponded with a gradual slide in her market price from 8 % to 6 % by the end of June.

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

Kamala Harris publicly stated she is "thinking about" running for president again in 2028 during a speech at the National Action Network convention, sparking speculation and debate about her political future. This announcement initially supported her market price but also led to mixed reactions about her viability.

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Governor Newsom released the 2026‑27 state budget revision, a $349.4 billion plan that highlighted his progressive agenda and reiterated his intent to consider a 2028 presidential bid after the midterms. The high‑visibility budget drew national media coverage and lifted his market price from 24 % to 25 % on May 19, then kept it near that level through early June.

May 15 2026

Kamala Harris secures majority of Democratic delegates to clinch presidential nomination

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Vice President Kamala Harris officially secured enough delegate votes in a virtual roll-call to become the Democratic presidential nominee, marking her as the party's choice for 2028. This event caused a stabilization and slight decline in her market price as her nomination became certain.

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.

Jan 9 2026

Josh Shapiro announces bid for second term as Pennsylvania governor amid 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Josh Shapiro formally announced his re-election campaign for Pennsylvania governor, emphasizing accomplishments and signaling potential 2028 presidential ambitions. This announcement solidified his political standing and influenced market perceptions of his viability as a presidential contender.

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.

Jan 7 2026

Mark Kelly signals serious consideration of 2028 presidential run amid fundraising surge

Mark Kelly rises to 2%1%

Senator Mark Kelly publicly stated he is seriously considering a 2028 presidential bid following a significant fundraising boost, partly fueled by his high-profile opposition to the Trump administration. His campaign coffers grew substantially, elevating his national profile and market prospects.

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

A CNN poll released on 21 Dec 2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field at only 6 % while Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received 1‑3 % support. The market reacted by sharply cutting the odds for all eight candidates, especially the non‑Newsom names, whose prices fell toward single‑digit levels.

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff announced a robust war chest of over $25 million as he prepared for a tough 2026 reelection in Georgia. This fundraising milestone was significant but also indicated his focus on Senate reelection rather than a presidential bid, leading to a sharp market price decline.

Dec 15 2025

Kamala Harris signals preparation for 2028 presidential run with book tour and DNC engagement

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Kamala Harris began promoting her memoir and increased public appearances, including stops in early primary states and meetings with Democratic officials, signaling her intent to remain a top contender for the 2028 nomination. This activity maintained her market presence despite previous electoral defeat.

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Shapiro, while launching his 2026 re‑election campaign, hinted at a “2028 conversation,” saying he wanted to be part of the party’s future direction. The comment generated modest optimism among traders, lifting his price from 6 % on Aug 3 2025 to 6 % (steady) and later to 5 % on May 8 2026 after a series of state‑level wins.

Nov 24 2025

Mark Kelly targeted by Trump administration over 'illegal orders' video

Following a video urging troops to refuse illegal orders, the Trump administration launched an investigation into Senator Mark Kelly, labeling his actions as 'seditious.' This confrontation elevated Kelly's national profile and fundraising, positioning him as a rising Democratic figure and potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Nov 15 2025

Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic frontrunner with strong national profile

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

California Governor Gavin Newsom gained recognition as the leading Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential nomination due to his policy achievements, campaign infrastructure, and high-profile opposition to Trump. His market price rose steadily reflecting this frontrunner status.

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Politico published an analysis naming Newsom the 2028 Democratic front‑runner and noting Harris lagging behind with just 9 % support. The story coincided with Harris’s mid‑term fundraising slump and pushed her market price from 39 % on Jul 11 2025 down to 6 % on Aug 2 2025.

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

The Post and Courier announced Newsom’s second South Carolina visit on 23 Feb 2026, a clear signal of a national‑stage campaign push. Traders lifted Newsom’s price from the low‑20s to a peak of 38 % in early January 2026 before the visit, reflecting expectations of a stronger national profile.

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.

Oct 31 2025

Republican National Committee launches digital ad attacking Jon Ossoff over government shutdown and immigration votes

Jon Ossoff dips to 2%2%

The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a digital ad accusing Senator Jon Ossoff of prioritizing illegal immigrants over Georgia families and contributing to a government shutdown, damaging his political standing and causing a drop in his market price.

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Newsom told CBS Sunday Morning he was "considering" a 2028 presidential run and would decide after the 2026 midterms. The comment raised his visibility and helped lift his market price from the low‑30s to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18 before it settled back to the mid‑20s by May 2026.

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

In a Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg interview, former Vice‑President Harris said “I’m not done” and hinted she may run again in 2028. The comments sparked a sharp market correction for all front‑runners, driving prices from the high‑50s in mid‑July to single‑digit levels by early August as traders reassessed her viability.

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Governor Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized the veto at the New York Times DealBook Summit, calling Newsom unfit for higher office. The controversy coincided with a sharp decline in Newsom’s market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑02 to 28 % on 2025‑02‑17, reflecting voter backlash over the veto.

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Axios reported that AOC was weighing a 2028 Senate or presidential run and had hired senior Sanders advisors. The speculation sent her price from the high‑50s in early July down to the low‑10s by late September as market participants reassessed the viability of a congressional member’s national bid.

Sep 19 2025

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez positions for 2028 presidential run with major fundraising haul

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

In September 2025, Ocasio-Cortez and her team actively prepared for a 2028 presidential or Senate run, raising significant campaign funds and touring nationally with Bernie Sanders, energizing progressive voters. This early positioning initially supported her market price but later personal developments affected it.

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for a new billionaire wealth tax in California placed Newsom in direct opposition, creating intra‑party tension. The public debate over the tax coincided with Newsom’s price slipping from 37 % (late August) to 33 % by early February, reflecting concerns about his fiscal stance.

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

California Governor Gavin Newsom began a high-profile trolling campaign against President Trump, using all-caps posts and memes mimicking Trump's style. This boosted Newsom's national profile and energized Democratic supporters, contributing to a rise in his market odds for the 2028 nomination.

Aug 15 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Aug 15 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee for 2028 to counter Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%

Internal Democratic Party strategists advocated for a demographic shift to a straight, white Christian male nominee for 2028, reflecting concerns about electability after recent losses with female nominees. This influenced market perceptions, particularly affecting candidates outside this profile.

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

A Kentucky‑focused op‑ed in the Lexington Herald highlighted Beshear’s recent visit to South Carolina and his appeal to both Democrats and independents, raising his national profile. The coverage coincided with a price rise from 7 % on Aug 3 2025 to 7 % (stable) and later a slight climb to 3 % on May 8 2026 as his name entered more national conversations.

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

A poll released by Morning Consult (reported by Politico) showed Ocasio‑Cortez dropping from a double‑digit lead among progressive voters to 13 % overall support. The sharp decline coincided with a 40‑point swing in the market, pulling her price from 50 % to 16 % within three days.

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

A satirical piece on a fringe website claimed Jon Stewart was the “2028 Democratic nominee,” which was quickly debunked by mainstream outlets. The absurd claim caused a brief spike in curiosity trading, pushing his price from 50 % to 3 % on Aug 3 2025, after which the market corrected to 1 % by Sep 3 2025.

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

In a July 28, 2025 NPR interview, Pete Buttigieg discussed the future of the Democratic Party and hinted at a possible 2028 presidential run, avoiding a direct confirmation but fueling speculation. This contributed to his initial market price but was followed by declines as doubts about his viability grew.

Jul 22 2025

Gavin Newsom gains frontrunner status after strong 2025 and strategic policy moves

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Newsom's active engagement in high-profile policy battles, including redistricting and climate issues, along with his national campaigning, elevated him to the leading position for the 2028 Democratic nomination. This boosted market confidence, reflected in his price rising from 18% to over 35% in late July and September 2025.

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 race, Kamala Harris quickly secured the Democratic nomination, becoming the first Black woman and first Asian American to lead a major party's presidential ticket. This historic event significantly boosted her market probability as the likely nominee.

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Biden's withdrawal and endorsement rapidly boosted Kamala Harris's delegate support, leading to her securing the Democratic nomination for 2024. This event marked Harris's official rise as the party's presidential candidate, impacting her 2028 nomination odds positively initially.

Jul 21 2025

Gavin Newsom gains early momentum amid California wildfires and political clashes with Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

In July 2025, California faced severe wildfires and homelessness issues, and Newsom's combative stance against President Trump, including over immigration enforcement and National Guard deployment, boosted his profile as a fighter for Democrats, increasing his nomination odds from 18% to around 35%.

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Senator Jon Ossoff's odds rose significantly in prediction markets following a rally in Augusta, Georgia, where he criticized President Trump and his administration for corruption and policy failures. This increased his visibility and positioned him as a top contender behind Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 18 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $12 million raised for 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Jon Ossoff announced raising $12 million in the third quarter of 2025, signaling strong financial backing for his 2026 Senate reelection bid in Georgia, a key state. This fundraising surge was significant given the competitive nature of his race and likely contributed to early market confidence in his political future.

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Newsom’s early July remarks that he was “considering a 2028 White House run” sparked a surge in speculation about his presidential ambitions, driving the market price for all listed candidates up to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18. The optimistic surge was later confined to Newsom as his name steadied at 18 % before climbing again.

Jul 16 2025

Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear visited multiple South Carolina cities in July 2025 to engage with early primary voters, publicly expressing his interest in a presidential bid and emphasizing the need for a candidate who can heal the country. This tour increased his national profile and contributed to a modest rise in his market price.

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Beshear gained attention as a Democratic governor in a red state with a strong record of governance and bipartisan appeal, sparking speculation about a presidential run. His pragmatic leadership and popularity in Kentucky positioned him as a possible nominee, reflected in early market interest.

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.

Jul 13 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nominee odds after sharp anti-Trump speech

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Senator Jon Ossoff gained significant momentum in prediction markets following a viral speech sharply criticizing former President Donald Trump, which increased his visibility and positioned him as a rising contender despite his later public denial of interest in running. This event caused a notable price increase in his nomination chances.

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Senator Jon Ossoff held a large rally in Savannah, attacking Republican policies and President Trump, energizing his base and demonstrating strong campaign momentum ahead of his 2026 Senate re-election. This event coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to 4% as the market adjusted to his focus on Senate rather than presidential ambitions.

Jul 12 2025

Gavin Newsom gains national attention after Los Angeles wildfires response

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

California Governor Gavin Newsom's handling of the January 2025 wildfires and his aggressive stance against President Trump over immigration enforcement raised his national profile, boosting his perceived viability as a 2028 Democratic presidential candidate and increasing his market odds.

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Party strategists privately advocated for a demographic shift favoring a straight, white Christian male nominee for 2028, reflecting internal concerns about electability after recent losses, which negatively impacted candidates outside this profile, including Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Newsom's announcement of a significant budget shortfall highlighted fiscal challenges in California, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability. Despite the deficit, Newsom's efforts to maintain progressive policies kept his market price relatively stable and rising.

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom begins aggressive campaign for 2028 Democratic nomination

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

California Governor Gavin Newsom launched a high-profile campaign effort including social media trolling of Trump and visits to early primary states, boosting his national profile and fundraising ahead of the 2028 nomination race. This helped solidify his position as the early frontrunner in the Democratic field.

Jul 11 2025

Josh Shapiro announces run for second term as Pennsylvania governor amid 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%

Josh Shapiro declared his intention to seek a second term as Pennsylvania governor, positioning himself as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender. This announcement marked the beginning of his increased visibility and market activity, though his odds declined from initial levels.

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Pete Buttigieg announced he would not run for Michigan's open Senate seat in 2026, signaling his intention to keep the door open for a 2028 presidential run. This clarified his immediate political plans and caused a sharp drop in his market price as traders adjusted expectations.

Jul 11 2025

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election campaign with 2028 presidential ambitions

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%

Josh Shapiro officially kicked off his 2026 re-election bid in Pennsylvania, emphasizing accomplishments and positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run. This campaign launch increased his visibility and fundraising but did not sustain his market price, which dropped sharply after July 2025.

Khối lượng

$1,273,925,399

Ngày kết thúc

Nov 7, 2028

Thị trường mở

Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x2F5e3684c...

Sep 7 2026

Gavin Newsom campaigns in South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom dips to 14%1%

Sep 4 2026

Jon Ossoff launches new Senate ad campaign amid re-election battle

Jon Ossoff rises to 16%1%

Ossoff released new ads targeting his Republican opponent, highlighting policy differences and increasing campaign visibility during a competitive 2026 Senate race.

Aug 17 2026

Jon Ossoff reiterates he is not running for president in 2028

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%8%

Aug 10 2026

Kamala Harris publicly states she is 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028

Kamala Harris rises to 9%2%

Aug 1 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejoins Democratic Socialists of America ahead of 2028 run speculation

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 20%6%

Aug 1 2026

Kamala Harris calls for major reforms including Supreme Court expansion ahead of possible 2028 run

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Jul 24 2026

Democratic National Committee votes to keep South Carolina first in 2028 primary calendar

Jul 23 2026

Jon Ossoff rises to second place in Democratic nomination polls despite denying 2028 run

Jon Ossoff jumps to 16%6%

Jul 19 2026

Emerson poll shows Jon Ossoff rising among 2028 Democratic contenders

Jon Ossoff jumps to 14%8%

Jul 15 2026

Senator Jon Ossoff aggressively questions Trump nominee at Senate hearing, highlighting opposition to Trump

Jon Ossoff rises to 12%3%

Jul 15 2026

Jon Ossoff aggressively attacks Trump during Senate Intelligence Committee hearing

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jul 10 2026

Gavin Newsom launches midterm campaign tour focusing on southern states

Gavin Newsom dips to 20%4%

Jul 7 2026

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surges in New Hampshire poll for 2028 Democratic nomination

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumps to 16%5%

Jun 29 2026

Jon Ossoff's viral campaign rallies boost 2028 presidential speculation

Jon Ossoff rises to 10%4%

Jun 21 2026

Gavin Newsom aligns closely with Joe Biden ahead of 2028 presidential cycle

Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%

Jun 17 2026

DOJ probe into Gavin Newsom could affect 2028 presidential ambitions

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 17 2026

Federal probe into California Gov. Gavin Newsom raises doubts about 2028 run

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%7%

Jun 17 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom drops to 20%5%

Jun 16 2026

Republican Mike Collins wins Georgia Senate runoff, setting up tough race against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%3%

Jun 15 2026

Federal investigation announced into Gavin Newsom and his wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom announces federal DOJ investigation amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom dips to 21%4%

Jun 15 2026

Gavin Newsom Accuses Trump Administration of Directing Politically Motivated DOJ Investigation Against Him and His Wife

Gavin Newsom dips to 24%1%

Jun 8 2026

The New York Times publishes opinion piece highlighting Jon Ossoff as ideal 2028 candidate

Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%

Jun 2 2026

Jon Ossoff pressures Georgia Democratic Party Chair to step down

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%1%

Jun 1 2026

Jon Ossoff faces criticism for vote to limit U.S. weapons sales to Israel

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Mike Collins wins Georgia GOP Senate runoff, setting up high-stakes battle against Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 31 2026

Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%

May 28 2026

Emerson College Poll Shows Pete Buttigieg Leading Among Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates

May 27 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms link arms amid crime and law enforcement debates

May 25 2026

Kamala Harris says she is ‘thinking about’ running in 2028 presidential election

Kamala Harris dips to 6%2%

May 22 2026

Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event

Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%

May 19 2026

Newsom unveils $349 billion 2026‑27 California budget and says he’ll weigh a 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

May 15 2026

Kamala Harris secures majority of Democratic delegates to clinch presidential nomination

Kamala Harris dips to 8%1%

Apr 29 2026

Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers

Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%

Feb 4 2026

Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs

Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%

Jan 28 2026

Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Jan 18 2026

Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 15 2026

Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%

Jan 15 2026

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Jan 14 2026

Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 9 2026

Josh Shapiro announces bid for second term as Pennsylvania governor amid 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%

Jan 8 2026

Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%

Jan 7 2026

Mark Kelly signals serious consideration of 2028 presidential run amid fundraising surge

Mark Kelly rises to 2%1%

Dec 21 2025

CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Dec 17 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Dec 15 2025

Kamala Harris signals preparation for 2028 presidential run with book tour and DNC engagement

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Dec 6 2025

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hints at 2028 presidential ambitions in re‑election kickoff

Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%

Nov 24 2025

Mark Kelly targeted by Trump administration over 'illegal orders' video

Nov 15 2025

Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic frontrunner with strong national profile

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Nov 15 2025

Politico: Gavin Newsom emerges as 2028 Democratic front‑runner, Harris trails

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Nov 10 2025

Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign

Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%

Nov 5 2025

Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%

Nov 1 2025

Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split

Oct 31 2025

Republican National Committee launches digital ad attacking Jon Ossoff over government shutdown and immigration votes

Jon Ossoff dips to 2%2%

Oct 26 2025

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he is weighing a 2028 presidential bid

Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%

Oct 25 2025

‘I am not done’ – Kamala Harris tells BBC she may run for president again

Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%

Oct 15 2025

California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Oct 15 2025

Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto

Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%

Oct 2 2025

Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech

Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%

Sep 19 2025

AOC weighs 2028 Senate or presidential run

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%

Sep 19 2025

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez positions for 2028 presidential run with major fundraising haul

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

Sep 18 2025

Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

Sep 2 2025

Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes

Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%

Aug 30 2025

Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities

Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%

Aug 22 2025

Gavin Newsom launches aggressive social media campaign mocking President Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 34%16%

Aug 15 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $25 million cash on hand entering 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Aug 15 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee for 2028 to counter Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%

Aug 4 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, touts bipartisan appeal

Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%

Aug 3 2025

Morning Consult poll shows AOC’s support plunges to low teens

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

Aug 3 2025

Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface

Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%

Jul 31 2025

Fact‑check: Jon Stewart is not a serious 2028 Democratic nominee

Jon Stewart plunges to 3%47%

Jul 28 2025

Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions in NPR interview

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 22 2025

Gavin Newsom gains frontrunner status after strong 2025 and strategic policy moves

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 21 2025

Kamala Harris becomes presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Biden withdraws

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 21 2025

Joe Biden withdraws from 2024 race, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

Kamala Harris jumps to 51%12%

Jul 21 2025

Gavin Newsom gains early momentum amid California wildfires and political clashes with Trump

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 20 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nomination odds after sharp criticism of Trump

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Jul 18 2025

Jon Ossoff reports $12 million raised for 2026 Senate reelection campaign

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Jul 18 2025

Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes

Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%

Jul 16 2025

Andy Beshear tours South Carolina, signaling 2028 presidential ambitions

Jul 16 2025

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as potential 2028 presidential candidate

Andy Beshear plunges to 7%43%

Jul 15 2025

Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 15 2025

Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 13 2025

Jon Ossoff surges in 2028 Democratic nominee odds after sharp anti-Trump speech

Jon Ossoff plunges to 8%42%

Jul 12 2025

Jon Ossoff holds major campaign rally in Savannah, GA

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Jul 12 2025

Gavin Newsom gains national attention after Los Angeles wildfires response

Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%

Jul 11 2025

Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor

Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%

Jul 11 2025

Democratic insiders push for straight white male nominee to counter Trump election trauma

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Jul 11 2025

Gavin Newsom begins aggressive campaign for 2028 Democratic nomination

Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%

Jul 11 2025

Josh Shapiro announces run for second term as Pennsylvania governor amid 2028 speculation

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%

Jul 11 2025

Pete Buttigieg announces he will not run for Michigan Senate in 2026, preserving 2028 presidential option

Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%

Jul 11 2025

Josh Shapiro launches 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial re-election campaign with 2028 presidential ambitions

Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%

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Câu hỏi thường gặp

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Tính đến hôm nay, "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" đã tạo $1.3 billion tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Jul 11, 2025. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028," duyệt 51+ kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" là "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" ở mức 19%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 19% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "Jon Ossoff" ở mức 16%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.

Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.

Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.

Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $1.3 billion được giao dịch trên "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.

Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.

Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 19¢ cho "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" trong thị trường "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 19% khả năng "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 19¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 81¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.

Thị trường "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" là dự đoán dài hạn với ngày giải quyết Nov 6, 2028 — còn khoảng hơn 2 năm. Thị trường dài hạn trên Polymarket thường thấy tỷ lệ thay đổi đáng kể khi sự kiện diễn ra, hữu ích để theo dõi cảm xúc phát triển. Bạn có thể giao dịch bất cứ lúc nào hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ trong những tháng và năm tới.

Thị trường "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" có cộng đồng sôi động với 810 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang nắm giữ vị thế ở đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.

Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.

Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028

Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028

Quy tắc

Bối cảnh thị trường

Quy tắc

Bối cảnh thị trường

Bình luận (810)

Người nắm giữ hàng đầu

Vị thế

Hoạt động

Câu hỏi thường gặp

Thị trường dự đoán "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" là gì?

"Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" đã tạo bao nhiêu hoạt động giao dịch trên Polymarket?

Làm sao để giao dịch trên "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028"?

Tỷ lệ hiện tại cho "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" là bao nhiêu?

"Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" sẽ được giải quyết thế nào?

Tôi có thể theo dõi "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" mà không đặt lệnh không?

Tại sao tỷ lệ của Polymarket cho "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" được coi là đáng tin cậy?

Làm sao để bắt đầu giao dịch trên "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028"?

Giá 19¢ cho "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" có nghĩa gì?

Thị trường "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028" đóng khi nào?

Trader đang nói gì về "Ứng cử viên Tổng thống Dân chủ 2028"?

Polymarket là gì?