**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 68% reflects stalled congressional progress on comprehensive federal AI legislation amid partisan divides and a preference for targeted or executive measures.** As of September 2026, lawmakers have advanced numerous bills—including a June House Science Committee package on research, security, and workforce issues—yet none have reached the floor for a vote on a unified framework. Recent reports highlight insufficient consensus for major regulation before midterms, with the House adjourning without action and Senate talks described as incomplete. The Trump administration’s light-touch approach via executive orders and a national policy framework emphasizing preemption of state rules has further reduced momentum for sweeping statutes. Key near-term catalysts include potential November hearings on frontier safety provisions and post-election sessions, but historical patterns of incremental rather than omnibus AI laws support the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật32% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
32% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 68% reflects stalled congressional progress on comprehensive federal AI legislation amid partisan divides and a preference for targeted or executive measures.** As of September 2026, lawmakers have advanced numerous bills—including a June House Science Committee package on research, security, and workforce issues—yet none have reached the floor for a vote on a unified framework. Recent reports highlight insufficient consensus for major regulation before midterms, with the House adjourning without action and Senate talks described as incomplete. The Trump administration’s light-touch approach via executive orders and a national policy framework emphasizing preemption of state rules has further reduced momentum for sweeping statutes. Key near-term catalysts include potential November hearings on frontier safety provisions and post-election sessions, but historical patterns of incremental rather than omnibus AI laws support the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$318Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 68% reflects stalled congressional progress on comprehensive federal AI legislation amid partisan divides and a preference for targeted or executive measures.** As of September 2026, lawmakers have advanced numerous bills—including a June House Science Committee package on research, security, and workforce issues—yet none have reached the floor for a vote on a unified framework. Recent reports highlight insufficient consensus for major regulation before midterms, with the House adjourning without action and Senate talks described as incomplete. The Trump administration’s light-touch approach via executive orders and a national policy framework emphasizing preemption of state rules has further reduced momentum for sweeping statutes. Key near-term catalysts include potential November hearings on frontier safety provisions and post-election sessions, but historical patterns of incremental rather than omnibus AI laws support the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation establishing a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence becomes law in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation establishes a comprehensive federal framework for artificial intelligence if its enacted text contains provisions in both of the following categories:
(1) Standards or testing: the legislation directs a federal agency or body (for example, the National Institute of Standards and Technology) to develop, adopt, or maintain technical standards, benchmarks, testing frameworks, or evaluation capacity for artificial intelligence systems.
(2) Transparency, disclosure, or risk management: the legislation requires transparency, disclosure, reporting, or risk-management practices for artificial intelligence systems, either as obligations on private-sector developers or deployers, or as guidelines or frameworks that a federal agency is directed to develop or adopt for use by federal agencies, whether mandatory or voluntary. Findings, sense-of-Congress language, and provisions that only authorize a study or require a one-time report to Congress will not satisfy this category.
The qualifying provisions must apply to artificial intelligence systems generally, either government-wide or to private-sector developers or deployers. Provisions that govern only the artificial intelligence systems developed, procured, or used by a single federal department or agency, or only defense, national security, or intelligence applications (for example, Department of Defense or intelligence community provisions in a National Defense Authorization Act or Intelligence Authorization Act), will not qualify. Qualifying provisions may be enacted as a standalone act or as a distinct title or division of a broader act.
Pending legislation that this market is intended to capture includes the American Leadership in AI Act (H.R. 8516, 119th Congress) and the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte-Trahan discussion draft released June 4, 2026). Whether any legislation qualifies will be determined solely by whether its enacted text satisfies the requirements above, regardless of its title or sponsors.
Legislation that satisfies only one of the two categories above will not qualify. Legislation whose artificial intelligence provisions apply only to a single application, sector, or technology (for example, semiconductor or chip export controls, deepfakes or digital replicas, chatbots or companion applications, data centers or their electricity use, autonomous vehicles, or the funding of a research resource such as the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource) will not qualify, even if it contains standards, testing, disclosure, or reporting provisions for that application. Legislation that became law before January 1, 2026, including the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Congress.gov's legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$318Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 5:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 68% reflects stalled congressional progress on comprehensive federal AI legislation amid partisan divides and a preference for targeted or executive measures.** As of September 2026, lawmakers have advanced numerous bills—including a June House Science Committee package on research, security, and workforce issues—yet none have reached the floor for a vote on a unified framework. Recent reports highlight insufficient consensus for major regulation before midterms, with the House adjourning without action and Senate talks described as incomplete. The Trump administration’s light-touch approach via executive orders and a national policy framework emphasizing preemption of state rules has further reduced momentum for sweeping statutes. Key near-term catalysts include potential November hearings on frontier safety provisions and post-election sessions, but historical patterns of incremental rather than omnibus AI laws support the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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