Recent service disruptions for OpenAI’s Codex coding agent, including a 56-minute full outage on September 25 affecting the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, plus elevated errors on September 29 and degraded performance with thread failures on October 7, have reinforced trader expectations of recurring issues. High demand for large language model capabilities in software development continues to strain infrastructure, producing capacity errors and authentication problems even after mitigations like usage resets. With 2026 featuring repeated incidents tied to scaling challenges, market-implied odds reflect the realistic prospect of additional downtime before year-end amid ongoing product updates and user growth.