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Політика·Congress

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

icon for Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?
Політика·Congress

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

1% шанс
Polymarket

$22,602 Обс.

1% шанс
Polymarket

$22,602 Обс.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-214 as of early September 2026, with one independent caucusing with the GOP and a handful of vacancies. Multiple special elections this cycle have produced no net partisan shift sufficient to change control, and the two remaining specials are scheduled for November 3. Historical precedent shows chamber majorities flipping between elections is exceedingly rare, with the most recent instance more than two decades ago. The abbreviated timeline before the midterms further limits opportunities for vacancies or procedural changes to alter the balance. Trader consensus at 98.8% on the “no” outcome reflects these structural and temporal constraints, though isolated member departures or court-ordered special elections could still theoretically narrow the margin further.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$22,602
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-214 as of early September 2026, with one independent caucusing with the GOP and a handful of vacancies. Multiple special elections this cycle have produced no net partisan shift sufficient to change control, and the two remaining specials are scheduled for November 3. Historical precedent shows chamber majorities flipping between elections is exceedingly rare, with the most recent instance more than two decades ago. The abbreviated timeline before the midterms further limits opportunities for vacancies or procedural changes to alter the balance. Trader consensus at 98.8% on the “no” outcome reflects these structural and temporal constraints, though isolated member departures or court-ordered special elections could still theoretically narrow the margin further.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$22,602
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

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