Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.