Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint command capacity for a full-scale invasion, with such capabilities more likely after 2030. Recent senior military purges have further disrupted PLA readiness and coordination. Cross-strait activity has centered on gray-zone measures, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, routine combat readiness drills, and reduced but persistent air incursions, rather than the large-scale mobilization or amphibious exercises that would signal imminent offensive intent. Traders therefore price the near-term risk of a military offensive aimed at territorial control as low through mid-2027.