US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion by 2027, viewing that year as a capability benchmark rather than a trigger. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports similarly conclude that the People’s Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain control for a full-scale landing in the near term. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone coercion through sustained coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone activity, and blockade-oriented exercises, while prioritizing diplomatic channels ahead of planned summits. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus against an invasion by the market’s end date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено12% шанс
$3,236,842 Обс.
$3,236,842 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Заробляйте 3.25%
12% шанс
$3,236,842 Обс.
$3,236,842 Обс.
Dec 31, 2027
Заробляйте 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion by 2027, viewing that year as a capability benchmark rather than a trigger. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports similarly conclude that the People’s Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain control for a full-scale landing in the near term. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone coercion through sustained coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone activity, and blockade-oriented exercises, while prioritizing diplomatic channels ahead of planned summits. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus against an invasion by the market’s end date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,236,842Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion by 2027, viewing that year as a capability benchmark rather than a trigger. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports similarly conclude that the People’s Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain control for a full-scale landing in the near term. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone coercion through sustained coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone activity, and blockade-oriented exercises, while prioritizing diplomatic channels ahead of planned summits. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus against an invasion by the market’s end date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$3,236,842Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2028Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion by 2027, viewing that year as a capability benchmark rather than a trigger. Taiwan’s defense ministry reports similarly conclude that the People’s Liberation Army lacks sufficient amphibious lift, sustainment, and multi-domain control for a full-scale landing in the near term. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone coercion through sustained coast guard patrols, air defense identification zone activity, and blockade-oriented exercises, while prioritizing diplomatic channels ahead of planned summits. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus against an invasion by the market’s end date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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