Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a structurally favorable position in Wisconsin’s 6th district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+8 and consistent double-digit leads in earlier polling against Democrat Brad Smith. Smith secured the Democratic nomination by a narrow 0.6-point margin in the August primary, while Grothman faced no serious opposition on the Republican side. Independent Mike Thurow has drawn support that narrows Grothman’s projected margin in head-to-head tests, reflecting the role of unaffiliated voters in east-central Wisconsin counties. Trader pricing clusters most heavily around a 10-20 point Republican victory, consistent with the district’s recent history and the limited time remaining before the November 3 general election. Late-cycle developments such as independent fundraising surges, turnout differentials in battleground counties, or shifts in the national environment could still compress or expand the final margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 15-20% 25.1%
Republican 10-15% 24%
Republican 20-25% 16%
Republican 5-10% 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
1%
Republican 25-30%
5%
Republican 20-25%
16%
Republican 15-20%
25%
Republican 10-15%
24%
Republican 5-10%
12%
Republican 0-5%
5%
Democrat Wins
1%
Republican 15-20% 25.1%
Republican 10-15% 24%
Republican 20-25% 16%
Republican 5-10% 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
$169 Обс.
1%
Republican 25-30%
$207 Обс.
5%
Republican 20-25%
$328 Обс.
16%
Republican 15-20%
$2,143 Обс.
25%
Republican 10-15%
$502 Обс.
24%
Republican 5-10%
$153 Обс.
12%
Republican 0-5%
$293 Обс.
5%
Democrat Wins
$331 Обс.
1%
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a structurally favorable position in Wisconsin’s 6th district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+8 and consistent double-digit leads in earlier polling against Democrat Brad Smith. Smith secured the Democratic nomination by a narrow 0.6-point margin in the August primary, while Grothman faced no serious opposition on the Republican side. Independent Mike Thurow has drawn support that narrows Grothman’s projected margin in head-to-head tests, reflecting the role of unaffiliated voters in east-central Wisconsin counties. Trader pricing clusters most heavily around a 10-20 point Republican victory, consistent with the district’s recent history and the limited time remaining before the November 3 general election. Late-cycle developments such as independent fundraising surges, turnout differentials in battleground counties, or shifts in the national environment could still compress or expand the final margin.
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,125Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a structurally favorable position in Wisconsin’s 6th district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+8 and consistent double-digit leads in earlier polling against Democrat Brad Smith. Smith secured the Democratic nomination by a narrow 0.6-point margin in the August primary, while Grothman faced no serious opposition on the Republican side. Independent Mike Thurow has drawn support that narrows Grothman’s projected margin in head-to-head tests, reflecting the role of unaffiliated voters in east-central Wisconsin counties. Trader pricing clusters most heavily around a 10-20 point Republican victory, consistent with the district’s recent history and the limited time remaining before the November 3 general election. Late-cycle developments such as independent fundraising surges, turnout differentials in battleground counties, or shifts in the national environment could still compress or expand the final margin.
The 2026 WI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$4,125Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 3:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a structurally favorable position in Wisconsin’s 6th district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+8 and consistent double-digit leads in earlier polling against Democrat Brad Smith. Smith secured the Democratic nomination by a narrow 0.6-point margin in the August primary, while Grothman faced no serious opposition on the Republican side. Independent Mike Thurow has drawn support that narrows Grothman’s projected margin in head-to-head tests, reflecting the role of unaffiliated voters in east-central Wisconsin counties. Trader pricing clusters most heavily around a 10-20 point Republican victory, consistent with the district’s recent history and the limited time remaining before the November 3 general election. Late-cycle developments such as independent fundraising surges, turnout differentials in battleground counties, or shifts in the national environment could still compress or expand the final margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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