Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket faces a narrowing window for a 2026 debut, with the company now targeting first-stage tank delivery to Launch Complex 3 at Wallops Island in Q4 rather than a flight. A January 2026 propellant tank rupture during hydrostatic testing already shifted the schedule from an earlier 2026 target, and subsequent updates emphasize extensive qualification testing, integrated vehicle checks, wet dress rehearsals, and a critical first-stage static fire of the nine Archimedes engines before any launch attempt. Recent progress includes successful Hungry Hippo fairing qualification and ongoing engine hot fires, yet these milestones leave insufficient margin for full integration and regulatory clearance by December 31. While an accelerated test campaign could theoretically enable a year-end flight, historical delays and the company’s stated priority on post-debut launch cadence reinforce strong trader consensus against it.