Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPhoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,833Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$2,833Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability that Phoebe Gates will not face arrest by year-end, reflecting the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or public controversies involving the individual. No regulatory filings, law enforcement actions, or verified incidents have surfaced in recent months to suggest legal jeopardy, allowing market consensus to solidify around a low-risk baseline. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with historical patterns for private figures without ongoing litigation or compliance issues. While an unexpected development such as a sudden regulatory probe or unrelated incident could theoretically shift outcomes, current information shows no catalysts or timelines that would realistically alter the trajectory before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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