Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report PVI of R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through May 2026 primaries, with Thompson seeking a tenth term and Democrat Ray Bilger, a former intelligence officer and veteran, mounting his first campaign. Thompson's substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.6 million raised versus Bilger's roughly $140,000—combined with nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, has reinforced trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's rural character make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPA-15 House Election Winner
PA-15 House Election Winner
$26,125 Обс.
$26,125 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Glenn Thompson (R)
95%
Ray Bilger (D)
6%
$26,125 Обс.
$26,125 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Glenn Thompson (R)
$9,179 Обс.
95%
Ray Bilger (D)
$16,947 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report PVI of R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through May 2026 primaries, with Thompson seeking a tenth term and Democrat Ray Bilger, a former intelligence officer and veteran, mounting his first campaign. Thompson's substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.6 million raised versus Bilger's roughly $140,000—combined with nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, has reinforced trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's rural character make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$26,125Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report PVI of R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through May 2026 primaries, with Thompson seeking a tenth term and Democrat Ray Bilger, a former intelligence officer and veteran, mounting his first campaign. Thompson's substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.6 million raised versus Bilger's roughly $140,000—combined with nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, has reinforced trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's rural character make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$26,125Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district due to its consistent Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Political Report PVI of R+19 and Donald Trump's 21.5-point margin there in 2024. Both candidates advanced unopposed through May 2026 primaries, with Thompson seeking a tenth term and Democrat Ray Bilger, a former intelligence officer and veteran, mounting his first campaign. Thompson's substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.6 million raised versus Bilger's roughly $140,000—combined with nonpartisan forecasts rating the race Solid or Safe Republican, has reinforced trader consensus. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns and the district's rural character make such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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