OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra launch in early September 2026 has fueled executive commentary framing the model as a potential AGI milestone, with President Greg Brockman stating "Welcome to the AGI era" and personally believing the company is "there," echoed by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declaring AGI arrived. Yet trader sentiment heavily favors no formal OpenAI announcement of achieved AGI before 2027, at 76.5% implied probability, because CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly called the term poorly defined or a marketing label, the company’s internal AGI definition emphasizes broad economic impact and autonomous systems outperforming humans at most valuable work, and no official declaration has followed Astra’s rollout despite strong benchmark results like near-perfect ARC-AGI-3 scores. With only months left in 2026 and OpenAI prioritizing cautious alignment messaging after prior safety pauses, the market reflects skepticism that hype will translate into a definitive public claim meeting resolution criteria before year-end.