Traders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Нічого ніколи не трапляється: 2026 рік
Так
84% шанс
$786,912 Обс.
$786,912 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
Так
84% шанс
$786,912 Обс.
$786,912 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$786,912Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$786,912Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 84% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because no resolution triggers have occurred or appear imminent through the remainder of the year. Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, now in their seventh month, have involved strikes on tankers and bases without escalating to a full U.S. invasion or Iranian regime change. Parallel conflicts in Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza continue at contained levels, while scheduled elections in Sweden, Russia, Brazil, and elsewhere proceed without producing leadership shifts or territorial invasions involving NATO or Taiwan. Midterm campaigning in the United States centers on congressional control rather than presidential removal or supermajority outcomes. This environment of incremental developments without crossing listed thresholds underpins the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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