Trader consensus for “No” on a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the index’s logarithmic scale, where VEI 6 requires at least 10 km³ of dense-rock-equivalent ejecta and plume heights exceeding 25 km—events that historically recur only once or twice per century. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and USGS monitoring through September 2026 show no confirmed VEI 6 candidates, with ongoing activity limited to lower-magnitude systems such as Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (VEI ≤2–3) and isolated VEI 4 events in prior years. No caldera or stratovolcano currently exhibits the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or magmatic unrest that typically precede such scale. An abrupt escalation at an unmonitored or rapidly accelerating system remains possible but would require unprecedented precursor compression within the remaining months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
7% шанс
$146,888 Обс.
$146,888 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
7% шанс
$146,888 Обс.
$146,888 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for “No” on a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the index’s logarithmic scale, where VEI 6 requires at least 10 km³ of dense-rock-equivalent ejecta and plume heights exceeding 25 km—events that historically recur only once or twice per century. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and USGS monitoring through September 2026 show no confirmed VEI 6 candidates, with ongoing activity limited to lower-magnitude systems such as Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (VEI ≤2–3) and isolated VEI 4 events in prior years. No caldera or stratovolcano currently exhibits the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or magmatic unrest that typically precede such scale. An abrupt escalation at an unmonitored or rapidly accelerating system remains possible but would require unprecedented precursor compression within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$146,888Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for “No” on a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the index’s logarithmic scale, where VEI 6 requires at least 10 km³ of dense-rock-equivalent ejecta and plume heights exceeding 25 km—events that historically recur only once or twice per century. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and USGS monitoring through September 2026 show no confirmed VEI 6 candidates, with ongoing activity limited to lower-magnitude systems such as Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (VEI ≤2–3) and isolated VEI 4 events in prior years. No caldera or stratovolcano currently exhibits the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or magmatic unrest that typically precede such scale. An abrupt escalation at an unmonitored or rapidly accelerating system remains possible but would require unprecedented precursor compression within the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$146,888Дата завершення
Apr 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for “No” on a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the index’s logarithmic scale, where VEI 6 requires at least 10 km³ of dense-rock-equivalent ejecta and plume heights exceeding 25 km—events that historically recur only once or twice per century. Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records and USGS monitoring through September 2026 show no confirmed VEI 6 candidates, with ongoing activity limited to lower-magnitude systems such as Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining (VEI ≤2–3) and isolated VEI 4 events in prior years. No caldera or stratovolcano currently exhibits the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or magmatic unrest that typically precede such scale. An abrupt escalation at an unmonitored or rapidly accelerating system remains possible but would require unprecedented precursor compression within the remaining months.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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