Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a postwar-record supermajority in the February 2026 lower-house election after dissolving the Diet in January, leaving the ruling coalition with little incentive for another early contest before year-end. Sustained cabinet approval above 60 percent, a fragmented opposition that recently abandoned merger plans, and an extraordinary Diet session scheduled for October focused on tax cuts and seat reductions further reduce pressure for dissolution. Historical patterns show snap elections cluster near budget cycles or when majorities are at risk, conditions absent here. Traders assign only a 3.4 percent chance of dissolution by December 31 because the current four-year term runs comfortably into 2030 absent an unforeseen crisis such as a sharp approval collapse or successful no-confidence motion.