**Traders see an 80% chance of no US Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, reflecting statements from the court's two oldest members.** Justice Samuel Alito, 76, confirmed in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he intends to serve at least another full term beginning in October, explicitly rejecting retirement speculation tied to age and Senate dynamics ahead of the November midterms. Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, has similarly shown no plans to step down despite reaching a longevity milestone and ongoing conservative discussions about timing. The remaining justices, including Chief Justice Roberts and the three Trump appointees from his first term, are younger and have given no indication of departure. With Republicans holding a Senate majority and no reported health or personal developments prompting exits, the current nine-member composition is expected to remain stable through the end of the year.