Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a commanding majority of 316 seats in the February 2026 general election following the January dissolution, enabling a stable coalition with the Japan Innovation Party. Opposition forces have since fragmented, with the Centrist Reform Alliance dissolving in September and its components realigning without forming a unified threat. An extraordinary Diet session scheduled for early October focuses on routine legislative priorities such as tax measures rather than any electoral trigger. With the lower house term now extending into 2030 absent extraordinary circumstances, traders assign only a slim chance to another dissolution before year-end. A sudden loss of coalition support, major scandal, or unexpected no-confidence vote remains the primary pathway that could still alter this outlook.