**Traders assign the highest probability (64.6%) to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, launched via executive order in September 2025 with applications opening in December, has seen minimal uptake and approvals through mid-2026.** Government filings and congressional testimony show only one approval by late April, roughly 338 requests received, 165 processing fees paid, and a few dozen advancing to petitions, despite earlier administration claims of over a billion dollars in interest. Rigorous vetting, the $1 million donation requirement plus fees, ongoing litigation challenging the program's legal basis, and competition from other residency options have kept volumes low. With several months remaining in the year and no reported acceleration in approvals, the market reflects expectations of continued limited throughput for the full calendar year.