Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Tokyo on September 16 reflects official meteorological observations confirming that exact maximum, consistent with Japan Meteorological Agency records and regional surface data. September climatology for the Tokyo plain, influenced by seasonal transition from summer monsoon patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures, supports typical daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s this late in the month, with minimal deviation expected once the observation window closes. Negligible odds on alternative thresholds indicate market recognition that daily maximums are finalized through standardized instrumentation and quality-controlled reporting, leaving little room for revision. Only a rare post hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter the outcome, though historical verification processes make such adjustments exceedingly uncommon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
23°C 100%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$116,315 Обс.
$116,315 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$116,315 Обс.
$116,315 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
19°C or below
$1,620 Обс.
No
20°C
$1,854 Обс.
No
21°C
$2,276 Обс.
No
22°C
$35,627 Обс.
No
23°C
$16,509 Обс.
Yes
24°C
$11,470 Обс.
No
25°C
$31,135 Обс.
No
26°C
$6,396 Обс.
No
27°C
$2,090 Обс.
No
28°C
$3,039 Обс.
No
29°C or higher
$4,300 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Tokyo on September 16 reflects official meteorological observations confirming that exact maximum, consistent with Japan Meteorological Agency records and regional surface data. September climatology for the Tokyo plain, influenced by seasonal transition from summer monsoon patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures, supports typical daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s this late in the month, with minimal deviation expected once the observation window closes. Negligible odds on alternative thresholds indicate market recognition that daily maximums are finalized through standardized instrumentation and quality-controlled reporting, leaving little room for revision. Only a rare post hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter the outcome, though historical verification processes make such adjustments exceedingly uncommon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$116,315Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Tokyo on September 16 reflects official meteorological observations confirming that exact maximum, consistent with Japan Meteorological Agency records and regional surface data. September climatology for the Tokyo plain, influenced by seasonal transition from summer monsoon patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures, supports typical daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s this late in the month, with minimal deviation expected once the observation window closes. Negligible odds on alternative thresholds indicate market recognition that daily maximums are finalized through standardized instrumentation and quality-controlled reporting, leaving little room for revision. Only a rare post hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter the outcome, though historical verification processes make such adjustments exceedingly uncommon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$116,315Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for a 23°C high in Tokyo on September 16 reflects official meteorological observations confirming that exact maximum, consistent with Japan Meteorological Agency records and regional surface data. September climatology for the Tokyo plain, influenced by seasonal transition from summer monsoon patterns and moderating sea-surface temperatures, supports typical daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s this late in the month, with minimal deviation expected once the observation window closes. Negligible odds on alternative thresholds indicate market recognition that daily maximums are finalized through standardized instrumentation and quality-controlled reporting, leaving little room for revision. Only a rare post hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter the outcome, though historical verification processes make such adjustments exceedingly uncommon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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