Becerra holds a clear structural edge in the November 2026 California governor race as the Democratic nominee against Republican Steve Hilton, with recent PPIC polling showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Becerra victory margins between 15 and 30 percent, reflecting the state’s consistent two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, Becerra’s background as former attorney general and U.S. health secretary, and superior fundraising. Hilton’s Trump endorsement and focus on taxes and crime have not narrowed the gap in this heavily Democratic electorate. The split pricing across margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout and the impact of affordability, housing, and energy issues on final vote share, while Hilton’s outright win remains a low-probability outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCalifornia Governor Election Margin of Victory
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Becerra 20-25% 20%
Becerra 15-20% 18%
Becerra 25-30% 15.0%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
11%
Becerra 35-40%
4%
Becerra 30-35%
8%
Becerra 25-30%
15%
Becerra 20-25%
20%
Becerra 15-20%
18%
Becerra 10-15%
10%
Becerra 0-10%
2%
Hilton Wins
8%
Becerra 20-25% 20%
Becerra 15-20% 18%
Becerra 25-30% 15.0%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$751 Обс.
11%
Becerra 35-40%
$303 Обс.
4%
Becerra 30-35%
$195 Обс.
8%
Becerra 25-30%
$509 Обс.
15%
Becerra 20-25%
$829 Обс.
20%
Becerra 15-20%
$975 Обс.
18%
Becerra 10-15%
$270 Обс.
10%
Becerra 0-10%
$171 Обс.
2%
Hilton Wins
$289 Обс.
8%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra holds a clear structural edge in the November 2026 California governor race as the Democratic nominee against Republican Steve Hilton, with recent PPIC polling showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Becerra victory margins between 15 and 30 percent, reflecting the state’s consistent two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, Becerra’s background as former attorney general and U.S. health secretary, and superior fundraising. Hilton’s Trump endorsement and focus on taxes and crime have not narrowed the gap in this heavily Democratic electorate. The split pricing across margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout and the impact of affordability, housing, and energy issues on final vote share, while Hilton’s outright win remains a low-probability outcome.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,293Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra holds a clear structural edge in the November 2026 California governor race as the Democratic nominee against Republican Steve Hilton, with recent PPIC polling showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Becerra victory margins between 15 and 30 percent, reflecting the state’s consistent two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, Becerra’s background as former attorney general and U.S. health secretary, and superior fundraising. Hilton’s Trump endorsement and focus on taxes and crime have not narrowed the gap in this heavily Democratic electorate. The split pricing across margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout and the impact of affordability, housing, and energy issues on final vote share, while Hilton’s outright win remains a low-probability outcome.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$4,293Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Becerra holds a clear structural edge in the November 2026 California governor race as the Democratic nominee against Republican Steve Hilton, with recent PPIC polling showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters. Traders assign the highest probabilities to Becerra victory margins between 15 and 30 percent, reflecting the state’s consistent two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, Becerra’s background as former attorney general and U.S. health secretary, and superior fundraising. Hilton’s Trump endorsement and focus on taxes and crime have not narrowed the gap in this heavily Democratic electorate. The split pricing across margin buckets signals uncertainty over turnout and the impact of affordability, housing, and energy issues on final vote share, while Hilton’s outright win remains a low-probability outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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